This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The Conjuring: Last Rites
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $60 — 75 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$35 million
Hamilton
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 — 12 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$7 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As reported in recent weeks, The Conjuring: Last Rites has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for pre-sale trends as overall late-stage tracking has jumped noticeably.
- The anticipated ten-film (or nine-film, depending on who you ask) is kicking off the fall and Halloween (aka “spooky”) movie season with another strong Warner Bros. marketing push that has generated the best pre-sales of any horror film so far in 2025, per our exhibitor samples as well as on Fandango. The studio’s remarkable 2025 run continues.
- The franchise record opening belongs to 2018’s The Nun ($53.8 million), while the first two Conjuring films exceeded $40 million and $41 million, respectively. Last Rites looks very likely to surpass all of those marks with a full PLF presence, including IMAX, in play this weekend.
- The pic’s Rotten Tomatoes critic score stands at 64 percent fresh from 61 submissions.
- Disney is wisely counter-programming with the first-ever theatrical release of the filmed version of the original Hamilton Broadway play, starring Lin-Manuel Miranda and its host of stars whose careers broke out because of the stage play’s phenomenal success.
- We expect the cinematic jump to play more like a fan-driven re-release than a traditional new opener in terms of sales patterns (translation: minimal walk-up business), but early trends are nonetheless encouraging. Indications are that the planned limited run may be extended beyond this first week due to popular demand.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 32 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($141.2 million), led by Beetlejuice Beetlejuice‘s $111 million debut, and 22 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($123.5 million), led by It: Chapter Two‘s $91.1 million start.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 7 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$64,300,000 |
NEW |
$64,300,000 |
~3,700 |
Hamilton |
Disney |
$10,200,000 |
NEW |
$10,200,000 |
~1,600 |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. |
$4,800,000 |
-54% |
$141,900,000 |
~3,000 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$3,600,000 |
-47% |
$87,100,000 |
~2,900 |
Caught Stealing |
Sony |
$3,100,000 |
-60% |
$14,000,000 |
~3,578 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal |
$2,900,000 |
-39% |
$78,300,000 |
~2,500 |
The Roses |
Searchlight Pictures |
$2,700,000 |
-57% |
$11,700,000 |
~2,700 |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney / Marvel |
$2,500,000 |
-50% |
$270,000,000 |
~2,600 |
Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
Universal |
$1,700,000 |
-79% |
$12,700,000 |
~3,200 |
Superman (2025) |
Warner Bros. |
$800,000 |
-69% |
$353,000,000 |
~1,500 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.