The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Christmas Weekend:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (tickets on sale Monday, November 17) will no doubt prove again that James Cameron films are marathon runners and not sprinters, so it’s safe to expect another first place finish and strong sophomore hold for the three-quel with Christmas Day itself landing on the Thursday before its second weekend.
- From there, holdovers such as SpongeBob and David (see note below) could remain strong, but Sony’s Anaconda remake will counter with an R-rated action/comedy aimed at adults looking for something on the spicier side of things during the holidays. Paul Rudd and Jack Black have seen their drawing power rise in the years since they were prominently known for adult-skewing comedies, but word of mouth will be crucial for this one as it could go in myriad directions at the box office.
- Marty Supreme will lean on A24’s core following and Timothée Chalamet’s fans with a period sports drama. Usually, those are tough sells with modern audiences, but holiday play and the combined cinephile interest could beef up appeal for Josh Safdie’s ping pong prodigy pic.
- Meanwhile, Song Sung Blue hopes to recapture some of The Greatest Showman magic with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson leading a feel-good comeback pic driven by Neil Diamond’s catalog of hits. Appeal will lean on adults over 35 here, particularly women.
- As for David, last week’s forecast entry mistakenly included old forecasts for Zero A.D. when Angel had it dated on the calendar. We’ll revisit David‘s actual forecasts next week.
- Nearer on the release slate:
- Wicked: For Good remains in a prime position to shatter the first film’s opening performance with pre-sales pacing far ahead of last year’s predecessor. We are slightly scaling back forecasts for now since they are already on the bullish end and pre-sale comparisons to the first Wicked have finally started to show the latter gaining momentum in day-for-day trends. This was generally expected as the previous film was less front-loaded in its pre-sales window and exploded in the final days before opening.
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery remains on our chart for another week, though it still remains to be seen how wide Netflix will distribute the sequel. Consider these forecasts highly volatile for the time being.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/13/25
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
5-Day (WTFSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
11/21/2025 |
Rental Family |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
|
11/21/2025 |
SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|
11/21/2025 |
Wicked: For Good |
$155,000,000 |
$185,000,000 |
$176,000,000 |
$448,000,000 |
$536,000,000 |
$513,000,000 |
|
11/26/2025 |
Eternity |
$3,500,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Zootopia 2 |
$102,000,000 |
$122,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
$185,000,000 |
$350,000,000 |
$439,000,000 |
$420,000,000 |
11/28/2025 |
The Thing With Feathers |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
|
12/5/2025 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
$50,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$132,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
|
12/5/2025 |
Hamnet (Expansion) |
|||||||
12/5/2025 |
JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
|
12/12/2025 |
Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas (25th Anniversary) |
$1,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
|
12/12/2025 |
Ella McCay |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
|
12/19/2025 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
$110,000,000 |
||||||
12/19/2025 |
David |
|||||||
12/19/2025 |
The Housemaid |
$15,000,000 |
||||||
12/19/2025 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
$15,000,000 |
||||||
12/25/2025 |
Anaconda (2025) |
|||||||
12/25/2025 |
Marty Supreme |
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12/25/2025 |
Song Sung Blue |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.