This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Holiday box office goes into full swing this weekend with the release of one of 2025’s most anticipated films before Thanksgiving week.
Wicked: For Good
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $155 — 177 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $120 million+
Rental Family
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2.5 — 5.5 million
SISU: Road to Revenge
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- There’s not much left to be said that we haven’t covered in recent weeks. Wicked: For Good is still on track for one of the best openings of the year (A Minecraft Movie‘s $162.75 million being the standard-bearer there), for a November release (Wakanda Forever‘s $181.3 million leads second-place Catching Fire‘s $158.1 million), and of all time for a musical (topped by 2019 The Lion King‘s $191.8 million and 2017 Beauty and the Beast‘s $174.75 million).
- Final week pre-sale and social observations have slightly helped narrow the field of expectations, but the numerous early access shows and double features, coupled with traditional Thursday previews and another pre-Thanksgiving week debut, still complicate matter.
- Critics’ reviews haven’t been as glowing this time around with 71 percent fresh from 150 submissions on Rotten Tomatoes), but the Popcornmeter audience score is a resounding 97 percent so far following Monday’s Prime Early Access and Wednesday’s Premium Early Access shows.
- The X factor in how high For Good soars will be how much goodwill was fostered by the first film’s historic and award-winning run a year ago, initially starting off with appeal that centered on fans of the Broadway musical and grew into a wider family audience over the holidays. That audience expansion could be beneficial here as a younger generation is now more familiar with the characters and I, and in theory, more excited to see how the story finishes.
- Granted, the general sentiment among adult fans is that the first part of the play (and, it stands to reason, the movies) are the most popular and beloved aspects (in no small part due to “Defying Gravity”‘s midway, showstopping presence).
- Countering this weekend are Rental Family and SISU: Road to Revenge. The former is usually the type of dramedy that leans slightly on adult female audiences, so opening directly against Wicked indicates more importance on the holiday theatrical runway and eventual at-home release for the strongly reviewed Brendan Fraser-led film. The latter, meanwhile, is a clear play toward male audiences who were fans of the first SISU and/or are not interested in the Wicked sequel.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $200.7 million. That would be 1 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($199.7 million, led by the $112.5 million Wicked and $55 million Gladiator II bows) and 6 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($190.2 million, led by Frozen II‘s $130.3 million start).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 23 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal |
$163,700,000 |
NEW |
$163,700,000 |
~4,000 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$8,900,000 |
-58% |
$36,300,000 |
~3,403 |
Predator: Badlands |
20th Century Studios |
$7,300,000 |
-43% |
$77,500,000 |
~3,500 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount |
$6,400,000 |
-61% |
$27,400,000 |
~3,534 |
Rental Family |
Searchlight Pictures |
$4,200,000 |
NEW |
$4,200,000 |
~1,600 |
SISU: Road to Revenge |
Sony |
$3,200,000 |
NEW |
$3,200,000 |
~2,000 |
Nuremberg |
Sony Pictures Classics |
$1,800,000 |
-26% |
$11,500,000 |
~2,000 |
Regretting You |
Paramount |
$1,300,000 |
-65% |
$47,000,000 |
~1,900 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal |
$1,200,000 |
-55% |
$76,600,000 |
~1,200 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,200,000 |
-47% |
$10,700,000 |
~1,600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.