This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Full disclosure I’m skipping a written analysis this week as I’m A) battling a head cold and B) taking the opportunity for a little breather over the holiday.
Full forecasts are below, though, as usual.
Zootopia 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $130 — 160 million (5-Day)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $125 million+ (5-Day)
Eternity
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 6.5 million (5-Day)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7 million (5-Day)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Will return next week. Needless to say, Zootopia 2 is tracking well ahead of every animated release since Disney’s own Moana 2 last year.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $187.5 million during the Friday-Sunday period. That would be 32 percent below the same Thanksgiving weekend in 2024 ($274.8 million, led by the historic trio of Moana 2, Wicked, and Gladiator II) and 12 percent above the same Thanksgiving weekend in 2019 ($167.3 million, led by Frozen II and Knives Out).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
5-Day (Wed-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 30 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$91,200,000 |
NEW |
$147,000,000 |
$147,000,000 |
~4,000 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal |
$68,600,000 |
-53% |
$101,400,000 |
$264,000,000 |
~4,115 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$7,000,000 |
-22% |
$10,200,000 |
$48,300,000 |
~3,400 |
Predator: Badlands |
20th Century Studios |
$4,700,000 |
-28% |
$6,800,000 |
$84,400,000 |
~2,500 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount |
$4,400,000 |
-23% |
$6,500,000 |
$34,400,000 |
~3,000 |
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
Netflix |
$4,200,000 |
NEW |
$6,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
~400 |
Eternity |
A24 |
$3,200,000 |
NEW |
$5,200,000 |
$5,200,000 |
~1,000 |
Rental Family |
Searchlight Pictures |
$2,400,000 |
-28% |
$3,700,000 |
$7,600,000 |
~1,925 |
SISU: Road to Revenge |
Sony |
$1,100,000 |
-54% |
$1,600,000 |
$4,400,000 |
~2,222 |
Hamnet |
Focus Features |
$695,000 |
NEW |
$1,100,000 |
$1,100,000 |
~100 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.