This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
BOT Domestic 2nd Weekend Forecast Range: $67 — 75 million
You, Me & Tuscany
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 12.5 million
Studio Tracking: $7 — 9 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Super short analysis this week — sorry, folks! Catching up on a number of things. Needless to say, it’s a light weekend as openers go. We’re banking on healthy walk-up business for Tuscany. Mario and Hail Mary will continue to dominate the field. Chart below.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $118 million+. That would be 17 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($143.4 million, led by A Minecraft Movie‘s $78.5 million sophomore weekend) and 18 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($100.4 million, led by Shazam!‘s $24.5 million million second weekend).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 12 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$71,500,000 |
-46% |
$309,400,000 |
~4,252 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$19,500,000 |
-39% |
$250,700,000 |
~3,700 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal |
$10,300,000 |
NEW |
$10,300,000 |
~3,000 |
The Drama |
A24 |
$6,500,000 |
-55% |
$25,900,000 |
~3,087 |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$4,300,000 |
-26% |
$157,100,000 |
~3,200 |
BTS WORLD TOUR ‘ARIRANG’ IN GOYANG: LIVE VIEWING |
Trafalgar Releasing |
$1,800,000 |
NEW |
$1,800,000 |
|
Faces of Death |
IFC Films |
$1,500,000 |
NEW |
$1,500,000 |
~2,000 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal |
$1,300,000 |
-41% |
$47,700,000 |
~1,800 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$1,200,000 |
-40% |
$11,000,000 |
~1,900 |
A Great Awakening |
Roadside Attractions |
$1,000,000 |
-51% |
$3,900,000 |
~1,289 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.