The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu (May 22 / Disney & Lucasfilm)
- Pre-release tracking continues to march along generally expected pathing, with a slight uptick in pre-sale momentum during the past week. We’re still advising caution with front-loaded fan interest natural to the franchise, but as the lone major Memorial Day opener two weekends from now, walk-up family business could push the film past Solo‘s $84.4 million three-day bow back in 2019.
- Masters of the Universe (June 5 / Amazon MGM)
- This may be a volatile film to track over the next few weeks. 80s nostalgia has likely peaked in commercial terms, and the brand arguably carries a level of cultural (and kid) awareness more comparable to the likes of Tron: Ares than Transformers.
- That said, trailer reactions have been quite positive and director Travis Knight has a solid track record for delivering crowd-pleasing stories, including the Transformers prequel Bumblebee and LAIKA’s Kubo and the Two Strings.
- Additional comps could include 2023’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, which similarly built on positive marketing but had a star-driven ensemble and comedic take to broaden mainstream appeal beyond the niche fan base.
- Ultimately, while adult men old enough to have grown up with the IP will drive upfront interest and pre-sales, potential word of mouth and an anticipated PG or PG-13 rating are worth watching evolve as it opens in the third weekend of Mandalorian, one week before Disclosure Day, and two weeks before Toy Story 5.
- Scary Movie 6 (June 5 / Paramount)
- Another volatile forecast to watch out for here. As similarly noted in our analysis for The Breadwinner last week, live-action comedies have a rocky recent history at the box office. Last summer’s The Naked Gun trended well in pre-release and trailer reactions, but ultimately catered mostly to its older male audience nostalgic for the 1980s/early 90s IP.
- In this case, we’re cautiously optimistic that the return of the Wayans family, stars Anna Faris and Regina Hall, and a trove of recent horror movie hits to lampoon could appeal to a crossover of Black communities, 2000s-era nostalgic audiences, and Gen Zers.
- The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act (June 4 / Fathom)
- Early pre-sales have been robust, to say the least, for this big screen feature that serves as a finale to a wildly popular YouTube series. Expect a front-loaded run, but one that was on virtually no industry radars until very recently.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/7/26
NOTE: Beginning soon, all forecast charts will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
5/7/2026 |
Iron Maiden: Burning Ambition |
Trafalgar Releasing |
$500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$750,000 |
$500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$750,000 |
5/8/2026 |
Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) |
Paramount Pictures |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,900,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$39,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
$44,500,000 |
$77,000,000 |
$104,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$15,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$16,900,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
5/13/2026 |
Top Gun (40th Anniversary) |
Paramount Pictures |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,900,000 |
$3,800,000 |
$2,500,000 |
5/13/2026 |
Top Gun: Maverick (2026 Re-Issue) |
Paramount Pictures |
$500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$750,000 |
$1,250,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,900,000 |
5/15/2026 |
In the Grey |
Black Bear |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$9,300,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$13,750,000 |
5/15/2026 |
Obsession |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
5/22/2026 |
I Love Boosters |
Neon |
$2,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$11,800,000 |
5/22/2026 |
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu |
Disney |
$74,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$86,500,000 |
$152,000,000 |
$228,000,000 |
$215,000,000 |
5/22/2026 |
Passenger |
Paramount Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
5/29/2026 |
Backrooms |
A24 |
$18,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
5/29/2026 |
The Breadwinner |
Sony Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$120,000,000 |
$84,000,000 |
5/29/2026 |
Pressure |
Focus Features |
$3,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
6/4/2026 |
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act |
Fathom Entertainment |
$10,000,000 |
|||||
6/5/2026 |
Masters of the Universe |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$25,000,000 |
|||||
6/5/2026 |
Scary Movie 6 |
Paramount Pictures |
$35,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.