This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Scary Movie VI (Paramount)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $45 — 55 million
Studio Tracking: $40 million
Masters of the Universe (2026) (Amazon MGM)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $25 — 34 million
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act (Fathom)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $10.5 — 15.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- It’s a wild time to be a movie fan and box office enthusiast. Backrooms is enjoying the biggest debut ever by an A24 release, while Obsession is defying everything we assume about predictable box office patterns. Adding the already well-covered achievements by Kane Parsons, Curry Barker and Focus Features, the TL;DR of it all is this: Gen Z is going to the movies in droves right now, and the takeaways from these two films will continue to evolve for months and years to come.
- The summer slate doesn’t stop there, though. Paramount’s Scary Movie VI is tracking among the best live-action comedies in years (excluding superheroes and high-concept IP like Barbie). Appeal could be decent among millennials and Gen Xers who grew up on the franchise, but models indicate the under-35 crowd is going to be a significant driver once again (noticing a theme?). Latino and Black communities are also tracking strongly, two walk-up heavy sectors that could lead to over-performance and topping the franchise opening record (Scary Movie 3’s $49.7 million back in 2003).
- Amazon MGM’s Masters of the Universe is enjoying mostly positive reviews (Certified Fresh at 75 percent from 85 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of this writing). The addition of IMAX showtimes and (intended) counter-programming to young male audiences could help with walk-ups here in the early days of summers when everyday is matinee-friendly. However, most models show pre-sale trends more comparable to the likes of Transformers One rather than Predator: Badlands or Tron: Ares. Audience demos are leaning toward men age 35-and-up.
- The YouTube-to-cinema era continues this weekend with The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act bowing through Fathom’s distribution network. Pre-sales exploded out of the gate back in April and have continue to show robust interest from the series’ integral audience of young moviegoers. We don’t expect much in the way of walk-ups or casual moviegoers, but that won’t matter with what’s trending to be another box office success story for fresh IP relevant among today’s younger consumers.
- As for the big holdovers, we expect some frontloading to be evident in Backrooms’ second frame with added competition from new releases. Still, the buzzy nature of its over-performance could help it find general audience appeal and perhaps out-hold the likes of the Five Nights at Freddy’s films.
- As for Obsession… look, at this point, everyone’s guess is as good as the next. Theater owners (and many others around the business) are merely hoping that rumors of an early-to-mid June streaming release will prove untrue and continued theatrical exclusivity be given as its historic performance rolls on.
Note: Going forward, we’ll be focusing on the top five films each week (with pinpoint forecasts) in the year-over-year comparisons and chart below, plus key new releases that may occasionally fall outside the projected top five.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 5 films are tracking to earn a approximately $140 million+. That would be 61 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($86.7 million, led by Lilo & Stitch’s $32.4 million third frame) and 5 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($133.4 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets 2’s $46.65 million start).
(view full top 5 forecast on Box Office Theory’s free Substack newsletter)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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