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Supergirl (Warner Bros.)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $34 — 43 million
Studio Tracking: $47 — 50 million
Jackass: Best and Last (Paramount)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $8.5 — 13.5 million
Studio Tracking: $10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Fresh off the biggest debut of 2026 so far, and the third biggest animated opening in history after 2019’s The Lion King ($191.8 million) and 2018’s Incredibles 2 ($182.7 million), Toy Story 5 will continue its reign as four-quad family appeal remains healthy on the back of a 95 percent audience score and 92 percent critics’ score (via Rotten Tomatoes).
- Naturally, coming off a double-holiday weekend, the initial drops may be sharper than normal, especially as it loses IMAX screens to Supergirl. We still expect the run to level out fairly quickly and march through summer toward a potential $500 million-plus domestic finish despite facing competition from Minions & Monsters and Moana in the weeks ahead.
- Speaking of the second film in the new DC Studios era, Supergirl pacing is unfortunately continuing to move in the opposite direction once hoped for in long range projections.
- …
Weekend Forecast
(view the complete analysis and top 5 forecast in our Substack newsletter)
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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