This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
2025 finally gets its first tentpole opening in movie theaters with the 35th entry in Disney and Marvel Studios’ Marvel Cinematic Universe. After weeks of tracking, here’s where things stand in final forecasts.
Captain America: Brave New World
Disney
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $90 million+ (4-day)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $92 – 105 million (4-day)
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: $190 – 220 million ($205 million pinpoint)
Paddington in Peru
Sony
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $15 – 17 million (4-day)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $16 – 21 million (4-day)
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: $46 – 60 million ($50 million pinpoint)
Ne Zha 2
CMC Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 – 11 million (4-day+)
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: n/a
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Captain America: Brave New World‘s long awaited review embargo lift arrived on Wednesday, yielding a 51 percent fresh score from 121 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of this writing. This lands on the lower end of anticipated critical reception with regard to expected box office forecast modeling, putting the onus on the film to deliver more positively with real-world audiences upon release this weekend.
- Prior to the embargo’s end, BNW‘s pre-sales and social tracking were consistent in the days and weeks leading up to release, handily surpassing the footprints and paces of The Marvels and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, two similarly fan-driven franchise films that ended up with divisive critical and audience reception. Expectations for MCU releases have been naturally muted in recent times to begin with, an intangible element to consider when assessing whether or not a mixed-but-not-disastrous critical reception will have as massive of an impact on this franchise as it would have (and did) for other films two years ago before its casual audience began to regress.
- With the double holiday frame of Valentine’s and Presidents Days still major factors to consider, as well as the open market for a PG-13 film counting on bringing out male audiences and action fans for the first time since late last year, it’s possible (but far from guaranteed) that BNW will be minimally affected by the mixed reviews on opening weekend. Moviegoer word of mouth, of course, will greatly determine how long or shorts legs will be in the late winter market that’s absent much direct competition in the weeks ahead.
- On the Paddington in Peru front, we remain cautiously optimistic in the three-quel’s ability to capture family audiences and fans of the original two movies via walk-up business over the four-day holiday with many kids out of school on Monday and reviews proving strong yet again (94 percent fresh from 103 critics). Dog Man‘s recent breakout and this franchise’s own innately contained appeal among domestic audiences might limit it from reaching bullish high-end projections, but pre-sale pacing is healthy compared to the likes of last year’s IF and Garfield Movie.
- Though not initially planned for a major domestic release, Ne Zha 2 will open in close to an estimated 700 North American theaters this weekend following massive demand from Chinese-American moviegoers amid the film’s historic performance in China. There, it’s become the first movie in box office history to ever eclipse $1 billion in a single territory ($1.3 billion and counting). Pre-sales stateside have ramped up in quick fashion as exhibitors have quickly allocated showtimes in response to the outpour of demand, indicating potential for sleeper breakout this weekend. What remains unclear is how grosses will be counted toward the “weekend” as the films opens with previews on Wednesday evening.
- Becoming Led Zeppelin also expands this weekend after a strong $2.6 million debut in IMAX last week, but we’re not offering up public forecasts at this time.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 102 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($69.4 million, led by the debuts of Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web) and 33 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($105.2 million, led by the debut of Alita: Battle Angel).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, February 17 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$87,700,000 |
NEW |
$100,100,000 |
$100,100,000 |
~4,100 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$16,900,000 |
NEW |
$20,400,000 |
$20,400,000 |
~3,700 |
Ne Zha 2 |
CMC Pictures |
$8,800,000 |
NEW |
$9,900,000 |
$9,900,000 |
~700 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$8,400,000 |
-39% |
$10,500,000 |
$67,200,000 |
~3,700 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$5,000,000 |
-40% |
$5,800,000 |
$17,200,000 |
~3,102 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$3,400,000 |
-15% |
$4,200,000 |
$240,800,000 |
~2,600 |
Love Hurts |
Universal Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
-48% |
$3,500,000 |
$10,900,000 |
~3,055 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$2,600,000 |
-9% |
$3,000,000 |
$43,400,000 |
~1,800 |
Companion |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$2,400,000 |
-20% |
$2,700,000 |
$19,500,000 |
~2,200 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.