Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Current Weekend
- Verity totaled $4.5 million in total previews, including an estimated $2.6 million from Thursday and $1.9 million from early access shows. Updated projections are in the chart below.
- Digger scored $1.2 million from Thursday previews, keeping it on pace with our final forecasts earlier in the week. Slight revisions are in the chart below.
- Aside from a few movements on other releases closer to opening this month, below are quick thoughts on November’s first batch of titles:
- Godzilla Minus Zero will benefit from the incredible goodwill of its predecessor, Godzilla Minus One, which earned $57.1 million domestically in late 2023 into 2024 as part of a run that won the attention of fans and numerous industry accolades. Early reviews for Zero are already promising great things with 97 percent of 32 Rotten Tomatoes critics giving it a fresh rating.
- Full analysis and long range forecasts available to our Substack subscribers
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/1/26
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
10/2/2026 |
Digger |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$7,100,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
10/2/2026 |
Verity |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$25,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$28,500,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$70,500,000 |
10/9/2026 |
Angel and the Badman |
Angel Studios |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,300,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$2,900,000 |
10/9/2026 |
Other Mommy |
Universal Pictures |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$63,000,000 |
$110,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
10/9/2026 |
The Social Reckoning |
Sony Pictures |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
10/16/2026 |
Sense and Sensibility (2026) |
Focus Features |
$3,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
10/16/2026 |
Street Fighter (2026) |
Paramount Pictures |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$86,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
10/16/2026 |
Whalefall |
Disney |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Ali G.: Who Iz I? |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Clayface |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Klara and the Sun |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$13,750,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Wildwood |
Fathom Entertainment |
$6,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
10/30/2026 |
Christmas at the Kringles |
Briarcliff |
$500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
11/6/2026 |
The Cat in the Hat (2026) |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
||||||
11/6/2026 |
Drummer Boy |
Angel Studios |
||||||
11/6/2026 |
Godzilla Minus Zero |
GKIDS |
||||||
11/6/2026 |
Jimmy |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/5/2026 |
Ramayana: Part 1 |
Sony |
||||||
11/6/2026 |
Wild Horse Nine |
Disney |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.