The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- This week’s additions to our public forecasts include early outlooks for Minions & Monsters and Young Washington, both opening over the long July 4th weekend as America’s 250th anniversary celebrations will be in full swing. While those gatherings and other factors will be in play for the box office, Young Washington may be primed for one of Angel Studios’ best performances to date as they rally guild members to help make it the #1 film at the box office for the semiquincentennial.
- Much closer to home on the calendar, if you worry that the next generation of filmmakers wouldn’t show up in the near future, it’s time to look at the box office charts.
- Kane Parsons and A24’s Backrooms is parlaying 4-chan-turned-YouTube sensation into a massively over-performing weekend with $10.4 million from Thursday previews alone. That’s more than The Conjuring: Last Rites ($8.5 million), Scream 7 ($7.8 million) and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 ($7.2 million). While some summertime and/or fan front-loading could be expected, weekend ranges are all over the place (ranging from as “low” (insert sarcastic laugh) as $55 million in the most conservative models to more bullish outcomes like $80-90 million). This is one to just sit back and watch unfold, fellow numbers nerds.
- Simultaneously, Curry Barker’s Obsession is arguably the story of the year so far after not only building on opening weekend with its second frame, but continuing to do so post-Memorial Day. The film’s 14-day haul stands at a remarkable $78.4 million domestically, already 4.56x its debut with plenty more to come. Again, predicting it is only half the fun and probably futile without just getting lucky at the moment. Competition with Backrooms might play a role, but again: sit back and watch the unexpected play out because this is a historic run with plenty of takeaways for the present and future of moviegoing audience demographics.
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
6/4/2026 |
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act |
Fathom Entertainment |
$10,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,700,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,700,000 |
6/5/2026 |
Masters of the Universe |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$32,500,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$78,000,000 |
6/5/2026 |
Scary Movie (2026) |
Paramount Pictures |
$41,000,000 |
$52,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$92,000,000 |
6/12/2026 |
Disclosure Day |
Universal Pictures |
$45,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$140,000,000 |
$221,000,000 |
$170,000,000 |
6/19/2026 |
The Death of Robin Hood |
A24 |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
6/19/2026 |
Leviticus |
Neon |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
6/19/2026 |
Toy Story 5 |
Disney |
$130,000,000 |
$160,000,000 |
$140,000,000 |
$465,000,000 |
$602,000,000 |
$495,000,000 |
6/26/2026 |
Jackass: Best and Last |
Paramount Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
||
6/26/2026 |
Supergirl |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$47,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$107,000,000 |
$181,000,000 |
||
7/1/2026 |
Minions & Monsters |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
7/3/2026 |
Young Washington |
Angel Studios |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.