Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SUPERMAN Pre-Sales Strong, But Emphasize Complex Range of Potential; F1 ($56M+) Continues to Impress; FANTASTIC FOUR ($125M+) Rolls Along

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Since we’ve covered a lot in the last few weeks, we’re back on a six-week outlook today with notes on the heart of summer’s line-up.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The top story this week was arguably Superman‘s ticket on-sale beginning with strong early results.
  • The film’s Amazon Prime-sponsored screenings, set for July 8, set a new 2025 single-day pre-sale record for Fandango, where those tickets are exclusively available for purchase.
  • General on-sale began Wednesday, and that’s where the asterisks quickly pile up. With significant demand burnt off the day before, there is no one-to-one comp for first-day sales in our exhibitor samples. This is the second Prime early access event to be hosted through Fandango, the first being last year’s Wicked. That Prime screening went on sale three weeks after general tickets and ultimately generated $2.5 million from Prime screenings alone.
  • Looking strictly at Wednesday’s general sales across our chain samples, initial results are foggy, to put it mildly. Taken even as a single-day comparison, the film still stood its ground against some of the best 2025 pre-sale starts (which also happen to be comic book films) such as The Fantastic Four: First Steps, coming in ahead of Captain America: Brave New World. With significant business having been done before that in Superman‘s case, we now have to watch how pacing goes over the next couple of weeks (at least) to reassess baselines.
  • For Thursday previews only, our baseline projections start around $22 million, with notable potential to climb above $25 million depending on acceleration over the next four weeks.
  • Our more “optimistic” models reported two weeks ago bake in some of the waning upfront demand from non-diehard fans in long pre-sale windows, presuming a strong final marketing push and reviews that could potentially spur late-window sales and walk-up business among families and older generations of moviegoers who are anticipating a fresh throwback to the wholesome nature of the Superman mythos.
  • Conversely, pre-sale baselines essentially met the low end of expectations this week in other exhibitor samples, underscoring the expectation that this will be a slow-burn marathon to win over casual audiences next month. Some side-by-sides with 2022’s The Batman raise the possibility of a (still strong) opening below our initial ranges, though COVID-era releases  with shorter theatrical windows such as that come with their own set of complications alongside the external pop culture baggage a movie like Superman already carries (to no fault of its own).
  • Still, all factors baked into our earlier models remain unchanged as the film has generated record trailer views for DC and Warner Bros., while boasting some of the best preliminary audience interest metrics in multiple industry polls and internal tracking reported by multiple outlets outside BOT.
  • All this said, and to err on the side of caution, we’re slightly widening our range given the complicated nature of Superman entering a pre-sale market already competing for the attention (and dollars) of How to Train Your Dragon, 28 Years Later, F1: The Movie, Jurassic World Rebirth, and the aforementioned Fantastic Four,while keeping in mind ad campaigns and reviews/social buzz remain a very important and unknown piece of the more bullish outlook puzzle.
• The Fantastic Four: First Steps remains unchanged from last week’s preliminary public models, continuing to follow its expected pathing with a long-lede pre-sale window and the highest initial interest indicators and preliminary sales of this year’s three MCU films.
• Closer to home on the release slate:
  • Disney and Pixar’s Elio remains behind the pace of recent family-driven films, but that could be partly be chalked up to the immediate attention of audiences being focused on How to Train Your Dragon this Father’s Day weekend. Early social reviews from critics are positive on Elio, but next week’s full embargo lift and late-stage pre-sales/walk-up business will tell us more. At this point, our model relies heavily on those variables, otherwise next week’s final forecasts could be lower.
  • 28 Years Later is pacing closely to fan-driven genre films such as Alien: Romulus, but again, horror is a genre that can be walk-up friendly while this sequel also has plenty of social chatter clout on its side right now. We’ll see how fan-driven it is by this time next week.
  • F1: The Movie‘s momentum remains strong, continuing to build a case for a summer sleeper if general audiences latch onto the star power in Brad Pitt (aiding in appeal among women) and big-screen spectacle promised by an effective marketing campaign thus far.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 6/12/25

(NOTE: Pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.