Notes, Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Ebenezer is steadily showing more potential as an early holiday season performer of significance thanks to ramped-up marketing and tracking metrics highlighting potential among families. Pre-sales remain sturdy as the Johnny Depp comebacker is pacing close to Karate Kid: Legends in our sample markets.
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping‘s hot start last week was no fluke. Anchored by standout Gen Z and Millennial interest, plus strong social media review blurbs before a full embargo lift closer to opening day, the highly anticipated prequel-sequel remains volatile to forecast but is trending evermore toward a $105 million-plus domestic debut.
- Again, some models are even more bullish than our current $116 million pinpoint and $140 million high-end, but there’s minimal data as of this moment to suggest less than nine digits is on the likely side of the spectrum. As always, though, nothing is totally locked.
- Of incidental note, the film is chasing Michael ($97.2 million) for Lionsgate’s top debut of 2026.
- Thanksgiving weekend continues molding into shape as Focker In-Law tickets went on sale this week and are so far pacing on par with expectations baked into previous forecasts.
- Full analysis and long range forecasts available to our Substack subscribers
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/6/26
Complete forecasts and % changes available to our Substack subscribers
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
11/11/2026 |
Ghost Soldier |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$4,400,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
11/13/2026 |
Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol |
Paramount Pictures |
$19,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$141,000,000 |
$112,000,000 |
11/13/2026 |
How to Rob a Bank |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$8,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$28,500,000 |
11/13/2026 |
Victorian Psycho |
Bleecker Street |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
11/20/2026 |
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping |
Lionsgate |
$105,000,000 |
$140,000,000 |
$116,000,000 |
$261,000,000 |
$395,000,000 |
$319,000,000 |
11/25/2026 |
Disney’s Hexed |
Disney |
$27,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$108,000,000 |
$181,000,000 |
$131,000,000 |
11/25/2026 |
Focker In-Law |
Universal Pictures |
$30,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
$134,000,000 |
11/25/2026 |
Hershey |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
12/4/2026 |
Violent Night 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
12/11/2026 |
ZERO A.D.: The Birth of Christ |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.