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Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Michael (April 24 / Lionsgate)
- With $12.6 million from total previews (including $3.8 million from Wednesday early access), the biopic remains on pace with our previous projections for a debut frame and is targeting a $76 – 95 million domestic bow this weekend (pinpointing around $83.7 million as of Friday morning). Despite a 40 percent fresh critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, the audience Popcornmeter stands at a strong 96 percent hot as of Friday morning.
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 (May 1 / Disney & 20th Century Studios)
- Pre-sales remain robust, as does overall tracking, for the awaited 2000s legacy sequel featuring the return of Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and the entire beloved cast, writer, and director. Women are dominating early tracking metrics with interest strongest in metro markets, but the cast could continue expanding appeal more broadly as release week approaches and Michael no longer presents a blocker in pre-opening tracking statistics.
- Mortal Kombat II (May 8 / Warner Bros.)
- Likewise, the video game sequel adaptation is enjoying healthy early buzz among core audiences (men of all ages).
- The Mandalorian & Grogu (May 22 / Disney & Lucasfilm)
- Following our initial forecast two weeks ago, pre-sales began April 17 and have so far lined up with projected early results in that arena. As noted before, it won’t be until closer to release that we get a sense of how front-loaded or more family-driven business will be for the first Star Wars film to hit theaters in over six years.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/23/26
NOTE: Beginning soon, all forecast charts will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
5/1/2026 |
Animal Farm |
Angel Studios |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$3,750,000 |
$15,300,000 |
$6,250,000 |
5/1/2026 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney |
$70,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$79,000,000 |
$191,000,000 |
$295,000,000 |
$230,000,000 |
5/1/2026 |
Hokum |
Neon |
$3,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
5/1/2026 |
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea |
Sony Pictures |
$1,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$7,200,000 |
$3,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$40,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
$96,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
5/15/2026 |
In the Grey |
Black Bear |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
5/15/2026 |
Is God Is |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
5/15/2026 |
Obsession |
Focus Features |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
5/22/2026 |
I Love Boosters |
Neon |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$14,700,000 |
5/22/2026 |
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu |
Disney |
$71,000,000 ($86,000,000 4-day) |
$87,000,000 ($105,300,000 4-day) |
$76,000,000 ($92,700,000 4-day) |
$146,000,000 |
$221,000,000 |
$189,000,000 |
5/22/2026 |
Passenger |
Paramount Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.