This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- 28 Years Later is positioned as the likely horror centerpiece of summer 2025 with a prime mid-late June release date following what multiple outlets reported last December was the second-most viewed horror trailer online in history behind It: Chapter Two.
- There’s still likely some ceiling to mainstream accessibility as a visceral, gory zombie film, but the sequel has no shortage of fans from the prior 28 Days and 28 Weeks sequels of the early 2000s, combined with cinephile intrigue around the return of both director Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) and writer Alex Garland (Civil War).
- Some PLF presence is expected initially, but that will be a competitive landscape in the middle of summer. Average ticket prices will spike early in the film’s run.
- With Elio, Pixar is hoping to ride the upward success of animation’s box office revival following their own blockbuster smash last summer, Inside Out 2, among hits from other studios in the past couple of years.
- While animated franchise films have done very well recently, original efforts in the medium have proven to be more challenging to duplicate that success with (see Disney’s own Wish and Strange World). Pixar’s Elemental was notably modest ($29.6 million) in its domestic start two summers ago before developing impressive summer legs to finish at $154.4 million. Like that film, appeal among Hispanic and Latino families is expected to be strong with Elio.
- The recent success of The Wild Robot could be a fair benchmark for Elio with similar sci-fi themes in play, while Elemental‘s own seasonal runway is a fair analog for what to expect given a lack of uber-franchises in the animation world hitting theaters this summer. The staying power of How to Train Your Dragon and Lilo & Stitch, plus July’s Smurfs, will be the main sources of competition. If reviews and marketing are strong, there could be even more upside for Elio‘s debut than forecast models currently reflect.
- In pre-sale updates:
- The aforementioned Lilo & Stitch is off to a strong start in exhibitor samples with the live-action remake driving the strongest first few days of pre-sales for family-friendly films since Wicked and Moana 2. One-to-one comparisons with the likes of Minecraft, Mario and other films will be challenging for now since Lilo‘s pre-sale run is beginning closer to release than those films. That said, we’re increasing our already bullish forecasts for now, though average ticket prices will be something to watch out for as release approaches. The film won’t have total control over PLFs with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning taking charge there.
- As for Mission, it’s pacing remains steady with two weeks to go.
- Likewise for Final Destination: Bloodlines and How to Train Your Dragon, though we’re bumping projections up slightly on the former to account for an expected healthy run in IMAX during opening weekend.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/8/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in the Box Office Theory newsletter on Substack)
Release Date |
Title |
Distribution Studio |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
5/16/2025 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$31,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
$34,500,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$93,000,000 |
$79,000,000 |
5/16/2025 |
Hurry Up Tomorrow |
Lionsgate |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
5/16/2025 |
Magic Farm (Expansion) |
Mubi |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
5/16/2025 |
Next Sohee |
Zurty Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
5/16/2025 |
The Ruse |
Seismic Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
5/17/2025 |
MetOpera: Salome |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
5/23/2025 |
The Last Rodeo |
Angel Studios |
$6,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$15,200,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$21,400,000 |
5/23/2025 |
Lilo & Stitch |
Disney |
$105,000,000 |
$124,000,000 |
$117,000,000 |
$350,000,000 |
$478,000,000 |
$405,000,000 |
5/23/2025 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount Pictures |
$59,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$175,000,000 |
$225,000,000 |
$205,000,000 |
5/30/2025 |
Bring Her Back |
A24 |
$7,500,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
5/30/2025 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony Pictures |
$33,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
$135,000,000 |
$113,000,000 |
5/30/2025 |
The Phoenician Scheme (Limited) |
Focus Features |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
n/a |
||
5/31/2025 |
MetOpera: Il Barbiere di Siviglia |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
Ballerina |
Lionsgate |
$39,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$132,000,000 |
$113,000,000 |
6/6/2025 |
Brokeback Mountain (20th Anniversary) |
Focus Features |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
Dan Da Dan: Evil Eye |
GKIDS |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$850,000 |
$1,700,000 |
$1,100,000 |
6/6/2025 |
Dangerous Animals |
IFC |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
The Life of Chuck |
NEON |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/6/2025 |
The Phoenician Scheme (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
6/6/2025 |
The Ritual |
XYZ Films |
n/a |
|||||
6/13/2025 |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal Pictures |
$65,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$247,000,000 |
$230,000,000 |
6/13/2025 |
Materialists |
A24 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
6/13/2025 |
The Unholy Trinity |
Roadside Attractions |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|
6/13/2025 |
Untitled Shudder Film |
Shudder |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/15/2025 |
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/20/2025 |
28 Years Later |
Sony Pictures |
$42,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$96,000,000 |
$141,000,000 |
$120,000,000 |
6/20/2025 |
Bride Hard |
Magenta Light Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
6/20/2025 |
Elio |
Disney |
$34,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$215,000,000 |
$201,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.