This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Year-over-year box office remains up, but this coming weekend will see a big shift in calendar comparison with the absence of any major tentpole releases akin to last year’s Dune: Part Two when it opened on the first weekend of March.
Last Breath
Focus Features
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $5 – 8 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 – 8 million
BOT Domestic Total Forecast Range: $11 – 23 million ($19 million pinpoint)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Last Breath represents the weekend’s marquee wide release with pre-release metrics indicating a debut in the mid-single-digit millions is likely. Pre-sales across exhibition samples are comparable to those of Conclave at the same point before opening.
- Captain America: Brave New World will remain largely unrivaled in its third frame, while retaining most premium screens. The main exception will be some shared IMAX time with Oppenheimer as Universal re-releases it in honor of its one-year anniversary winning seven Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director for Christopher Nolan.
- The Monkey reached expectations in its debut last weekend, the 2nd best ever for NEON outside Longlegs. Word of mouth will have a chance to dictate staying power from here.
- Also opening in an estimated 780 locations is Briarcliff’s My Dead Friend Zoe, though we’re not offering up forecasts at this time.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 61 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($108.9 million, led by Dune: Part Two‘s $82.5 million opening) and 54 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($94.4 million, led by How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World‘s second weekend and the debut of A Madea Family Funeral).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 2 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$13,500,000 |
-52% |
$162,000,000 |
~4,000 |
The Monkey |
NEON |
$6,800,000 |
-51% |
$25,300,000 |
~3,200 |
Last Breath |
Focus Features |
$6,000,000 |
NEW |
$6,000,000 |
~3,011 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$4,900,000 |
-25% |
$31,500,000 |
~3,800 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$4,300,000 |
-27% |
$84,100,000 |
~3,000 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$2,100,000 |
-17% |
$248,200,000 |
~1,700 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$1,700,000 |
-37% |
$29,400,000 |
~2,700 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate |
$1,400,000 |
-42% |
$4,800,000 |
~1,700 |
Ne Zha 2 |
CMC Pictures |
$1,300,000 |
-57% |
$17,400,000 |
~600 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
-27% |
$47,500,000 |
~1,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.