This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
I Can Only Imagine 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $10 — 19 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $8 — 10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- I Can Only Imagine 2 represents the lone major studio wide release this weekend as Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company’s sequel to the 2018 breakout adaptation of MercyMe’s lead singer, Bart Millard, enters the post-holiday market.
- Faith-based films can be notoriously challenging to track, hence the wider-than-usual final range in our forecasts above and below. Recent tracking and pre-sales trends have generally lined up with the same studios’ Jesus Revolution ($15.9 million domestic opening in 2023) while pacing significantly ahead of The Best Christmas Pageant Ever ($10.8 million) and even further in front of Ordinary Angels ($6.2 million). The former two of that trio represent KSC’s top two openers in studio history.
- Muddying the waters are Imagine 2‘s early access shows held last Saturday on Valentine’s Day, but Revolution and Pageant each held their own pre-opening weekend previews as well.
- Most industry expectations are for a debut closer to Pageant or I Still Believe ($9.1 million), but with where pre-sales are showing in our samples and the nature of faith-based and similar middle America demographic-driven films (like the recent Melania) to be overlooked in many industry tracking models, we’re taking a bit of a swing on this one.
- Whether or not ICOI2 excels high enough to challenge for the top spot, Sony’s GOAT is in an excellent position to benefit from its 93 percent Popcornmeter from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes after significantly beating expectations with a $35.1 million four-day holiday bow. The pic is poised to settle in for a strong late winter run before Hoppers and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie arrive.
- The other X factor this weekend: Wuthering Heights‘ staying power. After falling short of industry expectations for a $40 million-plus debut and our own more bullish models, pulling in $37.5 million over its first days, the period romance adaptation will hope to avoid the kind of sharp post-Valentine’s and Presidents Day weekend drop seen by 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey.
- With the same calendar alignment that year, FSOG slid nearly 74 percent in its sophomore frame. Wuthering‘s strong coastal and arthouse appeal will factor into the performance, but audience scores have been mixed (78 percent on the Popcornmeter). Retaining some premium screens will help, although it will be splitting those times again (this time with the IMAX special engagement of EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert).
- Like the aforementioned holdovers, Crime 101 will benefit from no new competition and solid reception among both critics (86 percent) and audiences (85 percent).
- Also opening this weekend:
- How to Make a Killing (A24) — no theater counts reported by the studio, but modest pre-sales thus far indicate it will not open in true wide fashion as once expected
- Psycho Killer (Disney / Searchlight) — estimated moderate to semi-wide release at 1,100 locations
- Paul McCartney: Man on the Run (Trafalgar) — special engagements on Thursday and Sunday in limited release
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $67.5 million+. That would be 37 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($106.7 million, led by Captain America: Brave New World‘s $28.2 million second frame) and 39 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($110.7 million, led by How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World‘s $55 million start).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 22 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
I Can Only Imagine 2 |
Lionsgate |
$17,300,000 |
NEW |
$17,300,000 |
~3,000 |
GOAT |
Sony |
$15,800,000 |
-42% |
$57,600,000 |
~3,863 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. |
$11,800,000 |
-64% |
$57,800,000 |
~3,682 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM |
$8,000,000 |
-44% |
$27,400,000 |
~3,161 |
Send Help |
Disney (20th) |
$4,900,000 |
-45% |
$55,900,000 |
~2,700 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$2,300,000 |
-35% |
$400,000,000 |
~1,500 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$2,100,000 |
-45% |
$423,700,000 |
~1,900 |
Solo Mio |
Angel |
$2,000,000 |
-69% |
$21,300,000 |
~2,400 |
Iron Lung |
Centurion |
$1,700,000 |
-48% |
$40,900,000 |
~1,800 |
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die |
Briarcliff |
$1,600,000 |
-56% |
$6,500,000 |
~1,610 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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