This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
After a much needed box office breakout, A Minecraft Movie is set to rule again following its best-ever opening for a video game adaptation. The market sees a handful of notable counter-programmers, though.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Minecraft is riding a wave of zeitgeist-cracking demand among Generations Z and Alpha on top of general family appeal. The “chicken jockey” meme has become a bona fide viral sensation among fans. Limited competition plus sustained PLF presence should translate to a healthy second weekend hold.
- Among new releases, one has begun to distance itself in potential: Angel Studios’ The King of Kings is displaying impressive pre-sale activity across exhibitor samples, with the studio just announcing it has surpassed Sound of Freedom in the same pre-sales metric. Forecasts are volatile due to some expected cap in screen space and the nature of “free” kids tickets being included amid Angel’s in-full-force Guild efforts, but their first major animated play could set new benchmarks for Biblical tales aimed at kids and families. The record currently belongs to 1998’s The Prince of Egypt with its $14.5 million opening.
- The Amateur is pacing ahead of recent adult-driven thrillers such as Black Bag, Last Breath, and Flight Risk. Critics’ reviews are positive with a mixed lean at 67 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The film will hope its star power and PLF presence drive a solid debut.
- Alex Garland’s Warfare is being greeted with a 92 percent fresh score and interest from the filmmaker and distributor A24’s followings. While a performance akin to last spring’s Civil War is not expected, this still looks like a respectable mid-range offering on a fairly crowded new release frame. It will have IMAX early access shows Wednesday presumably rolled into the weekend gross.
- Universal and Blumhouse’s Drop will have a PG-13 rating and 92 percent fresh score to draw young women this weekend, while pre-sale trends remain comparable to the likes of The Woman in the Yard and Imaginary. The pic also holds pre-Thursday early access shows.
- Last but not least, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 concludes what has been a string of excellent debuts by the latest season of the episodic series about the life of Jesus Christ. Fathom Entertainment delivered both of the first two parts to higher earnings than Season 4‘s counter-parts, including Part 1‘s franchise-best $11.8 million debut two weeks ago. Tracking for Part 3 is more reminiscent of Part 2, and well ahead of Season 4’s finale which earned $$4.05 million from its Thursday-Sunday start last year.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 111 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($68.3 million, led by Civil War‘s $25.5 million opening) and 44 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($100.4 million, led by Shazam!‘s $24.5 million second frame).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 13 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$79,800,000 |
-51% |
$283,700,000 |
~4,263 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$17,100,000 |
NEW |
$17,100,000 |
~2,800 |
The Amateur |
20th Century Studios |
$13,500,000 |
NEW |
$13,500,000 |
~3,300 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$9,100,000 |
NEW |
$9,100,000 |
~3,000 |
Drop |
Universal Pictures |
$8,500,000 |
NEW |
$8,500,000 |
~2,800 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 |
Fathom Entertainment |
$6,100,000 |
NEW |
$6,100,000 |
~2,400 |
A Working Man |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$3,700,000 |
-50% |
$34,100,000 |
~2,400 |
Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$3,300,000 |
-44% |
$82,400,000 |
~3,200 |
The Woman in the Yard |
Universal Pictures |
$2,200,000 |
-51% |
$20,400,000 |
~2,200 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 |
Fathom Entertainment |
$1,200,000 |
-83% |
$11,100,000 |
~1,600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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