Box Office Weekend Forecast: Netflix’s KPOP DEMON HUNTERS SING-ALONG Theatrical Event May Rival WEAPONS’ Third Outing for #1, But Will the Streamer Report It?

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

One of the top two movies at the box office this weekend, perhaps *the* #1 film, might be from Netflix for the first time in history.

The question is: Will the streamer officially report box office numbers?

Kpop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $16 — 22 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: unknown

Honey Don’t!
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 4 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$3 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• No two ways about it: This weekend is developing into a wildly unexpected one that’s set to fuel ongoing debates about theatrical windows, straight-to-streaming films, and Netflix’s specific relationship with the exhibition industry.
• There’s no question that Zach Cregger and Warner Bros.’ Weapons will continue to hold well amid its remarkable word of mouth going into weekend #3, and may still have a shot to repeat in the top spot for as many times…
• …That being said, Kpop Demon Hunters: A Sing Along Event is bringing its streaming phenom status to the big screen. The Sony Pictures Animation film is on its way to becoming Netflix’s biggest movie in history after a summer filled with repeat viewings, soundtrack binges, and overall dominance among kids and families that has unquestionably penetrated the pop culture zeitgeist.
  • This is all happening at the tail end of a summer which glaringly lacked a tentpole animated blockbuster with theatrical exclusivity (to be fair, live-action remakes of Lilo & Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon filled some of that space).
  • Since Kpop‘s surprise sing-along announcement and start of pre-sales last week, demand has been palpable. The buzzy original is pacing similar to other special engagements in recent memory such as Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith‘s 20th anniversary earlier this year and Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé back in late 2023.
  • There are no perfect comps here as a very kid- and family-driven film already available to watch at home, alongside the significant variable of AMC — the domestic market’s largest theater chain — sitting out the two-day event. However, other chains are meeting demand by adding showtimes following numerous sellouts for Saturday and Sunday’s somewhat limited showtimes (and minimal premium screen presence).
  • Walk-up business could be deflated due to that latter fact and any potential fan-driven front-loading in play since the film clearly has a well-established audience base after weeks of streaming and music chart-topping popularity.
  • Netflix notoriously does not report box office for any of its limited releases, including the estimated $13 million Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery posted in its five-day theatrical window back in late 2022.
• One the specialty front, Focus will counter-program in an otherwise light August market with Ethan Coen and Focus Features’ Honey Don’t! as it aims to reel in cinephiles and crime-mystery-comedy lovers. Pre-sale pacing is comparable to Coen’s Drive-Away Dolls.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 12 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($82.4 million), led by Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $18.3 million fourth weekend, and 17 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($87.9 million), led by Angel Has Fallen‘s $21.4 million opening.