This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Sometimes things get worse before they get better, and that’s certainly true of the box office in this particular moment. A significant turnaround in late spring and summer is coming, but for now, it’ll be another light moviegoing weekend at the box office (with a brief analysis here to fittingly complement it).
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
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Black Bag and Novocaine are the marquee openers from Focus and Paramount, respectively. The two are neck-and-neck in exhibitor sample pre-sales, with the former’s pull among director Steven Soderbergh fans helping it appear like a possible upset candidate this weekend.
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Both have a strong reviews from critics (96 percent fresh for Black Bag and 81 percent for Novocaine, via Rotten Tomatoes critics).
- Also debuting are The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie and The Last Supper, plus A24’s Opus in semi-wide release.
- Holdovers should retain much of their strength without major competition in the market, giving Mickey 17 a chance to try and build some staying power with its retention of IMAX screens.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 45 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($83.4 million, led by Kung Fu Panda 4‘s second frame and Dune: Part Two‘s third) and 64 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($126.4 million, led by Captain Marvel‘s second frame).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 16 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$8,800,000 |
-54% |
$34,300,000 |
~3,807 |
Novocaine |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,500,000 |
NEW |
$8,500,000 |
~3,300 |
Black Bag |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
NEW |
$7,000,000 |
~2,705 |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$5,800,000 |
-31% |
$185,600,000 |
~3,000 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,900,000 |
NEW |
$$2,900,000 |
n/a |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$2,800,000 |
-24% |
$41,200,000 |
~2,800 |
Opus |
A24 |
$2,700,000 |
NEW |
$2,400,000 |
~1,300 |
The Monkey |
NEON |
$2,600,000 |
-34% |
$35,300,000 |
~2,600 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$2,500,000 |
-26% |
$92,700,000 |
~2,400 |
Last Breath |
Focus Features |
$2,400,000 |
-41% |
$18,600,000 |
~2,500 |
The Last Supper |
Pinnacle Peak |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,000,000 |
n/a |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.