This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Hoppers
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $40 — 55 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $35 million+
The Bride!
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 — 12 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $16 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- After an over-performing debut by GOAT last month, 2026 could be shaping up as a possible rebound year for original animation — when it comes to humorous talking animals, at the very least.
- Disney and Pixar’s Hoppers is pacing ahead of long range models as it approaches opening day, tracking strongly as it gets a head start on spring break season (approximately 10 percent of schools will be out starting this coming Monday). Look for Saturday business to pop strongest out of all days this weekend.
- Reviews are ecstatic as 89 Rotten Tomatoes submissions have yielded a remarkable 97 percent fresh score thus far.
- Pre-sales are ticking higher and higher against earlier models with trajectories now well ahead of Pixar’s own Elio ($20.8 million domestic opening) and Elemental ($29.6 million), as well as the aforementioned GOAT ($27.2 million). Hoppers is building a strong case to exceed the debuts of Dog Man ($36 million) and The Wild Robot ($35.8 million).
- With The Super Mario Galaxy Movie one month out, strong audience reception could build a leggy run through March if word of mouth mirrors that of reviews. Observationally, the timing of release could be very appropriate for parents and families looking for a bit of light escapism from the world’s ongoing events of late.
- On the flip side, we’re increasingly cautious on Warner Bros.’ The Bride! as late-stage tracking has eased from previous forecasts in our modeling.
- With a review embargo yet to lift by midday on the Wednesday before release, industry speculation around word of mouth and/or critics’ reactions is trending in an unwanted direction.
- Despite a heavily promoted IMAX release, pre-sales are notably behind the likes of Mickey 17 and One Battle After Another at the same point before release.
- Industry tracking is more bullish than our current models, so we’ll see how the weekend plays out with potential walk-ups for the Jessie Buckley- and Christian Bale-led feature from Maggie Gyllenhaal.
- Following its franchise-best, expectations-shattering debut last week, look for Scream 7 to post a sharp decline in its sophomore frame as it loses premium screen space/prices to the two openers.
- On the specialty side, Netflix will distribute Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man in limited release ahead of its streaming launch, while Trafalgar will bring out K-pop fans with Enhypen [Walk the Line Summer Edition] in Cinemas.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $91 million+. That would be 88 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($48.5 million, led by Mickey 17‘s $19 million debut) and 54 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($198.1 million, led by Captain Marvel‘s $153.4 million bow).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 8 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$47,100,000 |
NEW |
$47,100,000 |
~4,000 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount |
$17,100,000 |
-73% |
$98,000,000 |
~3,540 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. |
$9,600,000 |
NEW |
$9,600,000 |
~3,200 |
GOAT |
Sony |
$5,200,000 |
-57% |
$82,800,000 |
~3,000 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. |
$3,300,000 |
-51% |
$78,100,000 |
~2,600 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM |
$2,200,000 |
-37% |
$33,500,000 |
~2,300 |
EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert |
Universal Pictures |
$2,000,000 |
-43% |
$11,400,000 |
~1,800 |
Send Help |
Disney (20th) |
$2,000,000 |
-30% |
$63,200,000 |
~2,200 |
I Can Only Imagine 2 |
Lionsgate |
$1,900,000 |
-40% |
$16,700,000 |
~2,400 |
Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man |
Netflix |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,000,000 |
~600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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