This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $33 — 42 million
The Smashing Machine
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 12 million
Good Boy
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 6 million
Avatar: The Way of Water (Re-Issue)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 4.5 million
Casper (30th Anniversary)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1 — 2 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Taylor Swift’s latest foray into being a box office savior continues to take shape with her Official Release Party of a Showgirl aiming above $30 million this weekend. As mentioned last week, exhibitor pre-sales haven’t matched up to those of The Eras Tour, but they weren’t expected to. Models remain comfortably ahead of all other concert-related cinematic releases at the same point before release. This week’s updated projections factor in slightly more front-loading and a much lower average ticket price than Eras enjoyed.
- Unfortunately, The Smashing Machine has yet to catch the late-stage momentum hoped for out of a sports drama that should carry some appeal inside and outside major markets. Time will tell if it turns into a walk-up driven release with mostly positive reviews (76 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and star power (Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt) on its side.
- All eyes will be on One Battle After Another as one of the upcoming award season’s frontrunners will retain some of its premium screen and IMAX footprint on the heels of its strong reception and the history of DiCaprio-led films to leg out at the box office. Still, the politically charged climate and relevant themes of the film are factors to consider in broader audience appeal.
- Good Boy is eyeing potential horror sleeper status following strong buzz in recent weeks, Avatar: The Way of Water‘s premium and 3D re-release looks to mainly draw the most die-hard of the franchise’s fans, Casper‘s 30th anniversary re-release could be a modest player in roughly 800 theaters, and Daniel Day-Lewis’s return to acting in Anemone will mainly cater to arthouse audiences in limited-bordering-on-semi-wide release at an estimated 800 locations.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 3 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($82.2 million), led by Joker: Folie à Deux‘s $37.7 million debut, and 44 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($142.7 million), led by Joker‘s $96.2 million opening.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 5 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl |
AMC Theatres Distribution |
$35,700,000 |
NEW |
$35,700,000 |
~3,500 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$10,200,000 |
NEW |
$10,200,000 |
~3,000 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. |
$10,000,000 |
-55% |
$41,400,000 |
~3,634 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse |
Universal |
$6,800,000 |
-50% |
$23,100,000 |
~3,500 |
Good Boy |
IFC |
$4,000,000 |
NEW |
$4,000,000 |
~2,000 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$3,800,000 |
-44% |
$167,500,000 |
~2,600 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$3,200,000 |
-55% |
$124,100,000 |
~2,600 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022 Re-Issue) |
Disney |
$2,700,000 |
NEW |
$2,700,000 |
~2,000 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$2,100,000 |
-36% |
$32,200,000 |
~1,900 |
The Strangers: Part 2 |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
-65% |
$9,700,000 |
~2,690 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.