This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Wuthering Heights
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $47 — 59 million (4-day)
Traditional Studio Tracking: $40 million (4-day)
GOAT
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $17 — 24 million (4-day)
Traditional Studio Tracking: $20 million (4-day)
Crime 101
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $11.5 — 17 million (4-day)
Traditional Studio Tracking: $14 million+ (4-day)
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7 million (4-day)
Cold Storage
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1 — 2.5 million (4-day)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Winter box office will start to warm up with this weekend’s anticipated handful of openers, spearheaded by a few major studio counter-programmers taking advantage of Valentine’s Day on Saturday and Presidents Day on Monday.
- Warner Bros.’ Wuthering Heights will easily win the weekend with date night crowds turning out for the Margot Robbie- and Jacob Elordi-led re-imagining of Emily Brontë’s novel from Emerald Fennell.
- Pre-sales have been on fire in recent weeks, far outpacing The Housemaid with appeal strongest among women and moviegoers under 35.
- Charli XCX’s soundtrack is an important social buzz component, while reviews lean mostly positive at 69 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday morning.
- Saturday should handily be the highest grossing day of its run, likely to reach $20-25 million on that day alone.
- A big presence in IMAX will further boost receipts and commercial appeal.
- Sony’s GOAT will leverage demand for a new family-driven animated pic in the market, the first major one since SpongeBob and Zootopia 2 over the holidays. Crossover appeal with NBA fans (via Stephen Curry’s involvement), and perhaps some social marketing benefit from Caleb McLaughlin (of Stranger Things fame), will aid the long holiday weekend push with many kids out of school on Monday. Reviews are strong at 83 percent fresh.
- Amazon MGM’s Crime 101 will counter the women- and kid-focused flicks with a thriller geared mostly toward adult men. Pre-release tracking is comparable to the likes of The Amateur, while reviews currently stand around 92 percent fresh. The strong ensemble led by Chris Hemsworth, Halle Berry, and Mark Ruffalo will be a core selling point. It’ll share some premium screen showtimes throughout the weekend.
- On the semi-wide release front, Gore Verbinski’s Sam Rockwell-led Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die aims to bring out fans of indie sci-fi-comedies, itself standing with a strong 91 percent fresh score and pre-sales not far behind the pace of Death of a Unicorn.
- Similarly, Cold Storage will lean on stars Liam Neeson and Joe Keery but may unfortunately be lost in the shuffle of so many other films hitting the market theatrically this weekend. Its release was previously delayed from Super Bowl weekend. Reviews, though, are a generally encouraging 75 percent fresh.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $102 million+ (3-day only). That would be 29 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($144 million, led by Captain America: Brave New World‘s $88.8 million debut) and 3 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($105.2 million, led by Alita: Battle Angel‘s $28.5 million debut).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, February 16 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. |
$48,800,000 |
NEW |
$53,200,000 |
$53,200,000 |
~3,600 |
GOAT |
Sony |
$16,300,000 |
NEW |
$20,300,000 |
$20,300,000 |
~3,500 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM |
$12,600,000 |
NEW |
$14,500,000 |
$14,500,000 |
~3,000 |
Send Help |
Disney (20th) |
$5,400,000 |
-40% |
$6,400,000 |
$44,200,000 |
~3,000 |
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die |
Briarcliff |
$4,900,000 |
NEW |
$5,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
1,610 |
Solo Mio |
Angel |
$4,400,000 |
-37% |
$5,000,000 |
$14,300,000 |
~3,052 |
Iron Lung |
Centurion |
$3,300,000 |
-45% |
$3,900,000 |
$38,500,000 |
~1,700 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$2,200,000 |
-45% |
$3,200,000 |
$418,800,000 |
~1,300 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$2,000,000 |
-42% |
$2,400,000 |
$395,200,000 |
~1,700 |
Dracula (2026) |
Vertical |
$1,900,000 |
-57% |
$2,200,000 |
$7,700,000 |
~2,050 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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