This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for as little as $6.25 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
Inside Out 2 continues to demolish expectations on the back of stellar word of mouth, pent-up demand, summer vacations, and record-breaking temperatures across large areas of North America that are driving families to indoor, air-conditioned entertainment options for the kiddos.
After last weekend’s $101 million sophomore showing, a 34.4 percent decline that marked the best-ever drop for a film to debut north of $150 million, Pixar’s event sequel is in line to win a third frame — albeit, with some fresh counter-programming competition hitting the market.
Inside Out 2
Disney & Pixar
Third Domestic Weekend Forecast: $61 – 75 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As noted, Pixar’s sequel is the talk of the town among families of all ages. It will again face no competition for that core audience as it challenges the best third frames in history.
- The third weekend record belongs to Star Wars: The Force Awakens (a seemingly-out-of-reach $90.2 million), but the next best is Avatar ($68.5 million) followed by 11 other films in the $50-67 million range. Even with the loss of premium screen formats to this weekend’s opener (and, thus, some of those higher ticket price premiums), Inside Out 2 has an excellent shot at a high spot on that list.
A Quiet Place: Day One
Paramount Pictures
June 28, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $41 – 50 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Pre-sales have grown steadily in recent days for what it is certainly one of the marquee sci-fi/horror releases of the year. Across our sample markets, Day One is pacing close to the likes of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Scream VI, while leading the likes of A Quiet Place Part II and Insidious: The Red Door. The film will have a host of premium screens available, including IMAX.
- There is a clear goodwill advantage from the first two films in the franchise as each delivered strong grosses and reception. If there’s a potential softening element, it’ll be the prequel and “new cast” syndromes that often result in diminished returns for some franchises. Still, the absence of many tentpole films similar to this genre could mostly balance that out.
Horizon: An American Saga
Warner Bros. Pictures
June 28, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $11 – 16 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Pre-sales are wildly varied depending on which markets and theater chains one is looking at. As has always been expected, Horizon is a slow-starter in coastal regions, but activity across key middle America regions provides enough confidence to potentially arrive on the middle-to-high ends of recent tracking. Kevin Costner’s film is trending 66 percent ahead of The Bikeriders in our sample markets.
- Critics are largely divided on the film with 49 percent of 41 initial Rotten Tomatoes submissions giving it a fresh rating. The three-hour-plus runtime could be a concern given the target adult audience is incredibly challenging to lure back into cinemas in the era of streaming. The western genre is also limiting as younger audiences rarely come out for it, making the 40-plus crowd that much more crucial to opening weekend and long term staying power through the Fourth of July holiday and beyond.
Other Notable Releases This Weekend
- A Sacrifice
- Daddio
- Kalki 2898 AD
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 25 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($122.1 million, when Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opened to $60.4 million) and 10 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($138.8 million, when Toy Story 4 repeated at first place in its second frame against the debuts of Annabelle Comes Home and Yesterday).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 30 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $66,100,000 | $479,600,000 | ~4,440 | -35% |
| A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | $48,000,000 | $48,000,000 | ~3,706 | NEW |
| Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | $13,700,000 | $13,700,000 | ~3,300 | NEW |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $11,100,000 | $166,600,000 | ~3,300 | -41% |
| The Bikeriders | Focus Features | $4,000,000 | $17,200,000 | ~2,642 | -59% |
| The Garfield Movie | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $2,800,000 | $90,500,000 | ~2,700 | -26% |
| Kinds of Kindness | 20th Century Studios | $2,000,000 | $2,500,000 | ~500 | +430% |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 20th Century Studios | $1,900,000 | $168,200,000 | ~1,500 | -50% |
| IF | Paramount Pictures | $1,700,000 | $110,000,000 | ~1,800 | -37% |
| Blue Lock the Movie – Episode Nag | Sony / Crunchyroll | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | ~900 | NEW |
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for as little as $6.25 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.
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