This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Following last week’s indie breakout of Cineverse and Iconic Events’ Terrifier 3, peak spooky season continues with two weeks before Halloween and Paramount’s release of Smile 2 this weekend.
Smile 2
October 18, 2024
Paramount Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $17 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $18 – 26 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The original film was a sleeper box office hit after being transitioned from a planned streaming release to theatrical following strong audience test scores. The results justified the decision as writer and director Parker Finn’s first film scored $22.6 million in its domestic debut, legging out to $105.9 million and $217.4 million globally.
- The sequel is again the recipient of strong early reactions, boasting an 84 percent fresh score from 38 critics’ reviews on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
- Pre-sales have lagged behind comparable sequels such as The Exorcist: Believer, The Nun II, and Insidious: The Red Door. It’s not uncommon for horror sequels to see diminished returns (see the recent Happy Death Day and Halloween installments), but this could be a case of increased reliance upon walk-up business sans any notable fan base to drive upfront purchases.
- The relative breakout of Terrifier 3 among indie horror cinephiles could also be impacting Smile 2‘s traction, though it remains to be seen how much momentum that sequel can sustain among more casual customers given its highly graphic nature with squeamish viewers versus Smile‘s more universally accessible brand of horror.
Other Notable Wide Releases Not Forecast Below:
- Rumours (Bleecker Street)
- We Live In Time (Expansion) (A24)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 32 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($80.2 million, when Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour was still strong in its second frame as Killers of the Flower Moon debuted) and 58 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($129.8 million, when Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Zombieland: Double Tap opened).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 20 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Smile 2 | Paramount Pictures | $22,900,000 | NEW | $22,900,000 | ~3,500 |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $10,100,000 | -28% | $100,900,000 | ~3,600 |
| Terrifier 3 | Cineverse / Iconic Events | $6,900,000 | -63% | $33,600,000 | ~2,514 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $4,700,000 | -36% | $283,600,000 | ~3,100 |
| Joker: Folie à Deux | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,600,000 | -63% | $56,800,000 | ~3,400 |
| Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $2,200,000 | -42% | $56,600,000 | ~2,300 |
| Saturday Night | Sony Pictures | $2,000,000 | -41% | $7,700,000 | ~2,309 |
| Piece By Piece | Focus Features | $1,700,000 | -56% | $7,200,000 | ~1,865 |
| Hocus Pocus (2024 Re-Issue) | Walt Disney Pictures | $850,000 | NEW | $850,000 | ~1,500 |
| My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next | Toho International | $750,000 | -75% | $4,700,000 | ~1,845 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.