This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
January’s first major studio release anchors this week’s brief analysis and weekend forecast below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is hoping to capitalize on the reputable history of adult male-driven action pics this time of year, namely those of Gerard Butler (who recently sent Plane to a respectable $10.3 million three-day MLK opening two years ago. The original Thieves bowed to $15.2 million, onward to $45 million domestically and $80.5 million worldwide, back in January 2018. The market and theatrical demographics have evolved since then, but this sequel is showing healthy signals in social and exhibitor pre-sale trends ahead of Plane itself and last year’s The Beekeeper. The studio expects between $11 and 13 million this weekend.
- Paramount will expand Better Man into an estimated 1,200 locations after posting just under $100,000 from 6 domestic venues in two weeks through this Tuesday. The modest platform earnings indicate a semi-wide berth will be similarly conservative.
- Also expanding is The Last Showgirl from Roadside Attractions at an estimated 850 theaters, while Indian release Game Changer will hit theaters as well.
- External of openers, nationwide holdovers will likely see notable drops coming off the holiday period and coming up against the start of NFL playoffs this weekend. In more localized terms, the devastating California wildfires will likely impact revenues in that region of the country, while a winter storm barreling through the center of the U.S. toward the east coast will also be worth factoring in.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 19 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($85.3 million, led by debuts from Mean Girls and The Beekeeper) and 28 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($96.8 million, led by debuts from The Upside and A Dog’s Way Home).
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 12 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Den of Thieves 2: Pantera | Lionsgate | $16,500,000 | NEW | $16,500,000 | ~3,000 |
| Mufasa: The Lion King | Walt Disney Pictures | $13,100,000 | -44% | $187,600,000 | ~3,700 |
| Sonic the Hedgehog 3 | Paramount Pictures | $10,900,000 | -49% | $205,500,000 | ~3,500 |
| Nosferatu | Focus Features | $7,000,000 | -47% | $81,400,000 | ~2,800 |
| Moana 2 | Walt Disney Pictures | $6,000,000 | -52% | $434,400,000 | ~3,200 |
| A Complete Unknown | Searchlight Pictures | $5,000,000 | -39% | $50,500,000 | ~2,700 |
| Wicked | Universal Pictures | $5,000,000 | -50% | $458,200,000 | ~3,000 |
| Babygirl | A24 | $3,000,000 | -33% | $21,100,000 | ~2,164 |
| Better Man | Paramount Pictures | $1,900,000 | 7081% | $2,000,000 | ~1,200 |
| Gladiator II | Paramount Pictures | $1,100,000 | -58% | $170,800,000 | ~1,300 |
| Game Changer | – | n/a | |||
| The Last Showgirl | Roadside Attractions | ~850 | |||
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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