Memorial Day weekend hopes to bring out a variety of audiences with three wide releases, two of which will counter-program for the attention of many moviegoers beginning their summer season.
Furiosa
Warner Bros. Pictures
May 24, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $44 – 53 million (4-day)
Key Tracking Factors
- Pre-sales are trending close to the pace of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and 28 percent behind John Wick: Chapter 4 in our sample tracking markets. Strong reviews (88 percent on Rotten Tomatoes from critics) could aid interest outside fans, but the challenge will be in courting casual moviegoers and overcoming the nine-year gap since Fury Road.
The Garfield Movie
Warner Bros. Pictures
May 24, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $31 – 40 million (4-day)
Key Tracking Factors
- Pre-sales have trended behind Kung Fu Panda 4 by approximately 25 percent this week, but there could be significant backloading with a holiday weekend ahead. A 39 percent critics’ score won’t win over many adults, but kids are the name of the game here as summer vacation begins for many. That said, the IP may not be as familiar to the current generation of young ones as their parents.
Sight
Angel Studios
May 24, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $5 – 9 million (4-day)
Key Tracking Factors
- Angel Studios has a consistent audience that turns out for most of its theatrical releases. That factor should be in play again over the Memorial Day frame as pre-sales are comparable to Ordinary Angels at the same point.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | FSSM Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Monday, May 27 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Thu) | Distributor |
| Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | $47,000,000 | $47,000,000 | ~3,750 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| The Garfield Movie | $35,000,000 | $35,000,000 | 4,035 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| IF | $20,000,000 | $62,000,000 | 4,068 | Paramount Pictures |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | $15,200,000 | $124,100,000 | 3,550 | 20th Century Studios |
| Sight | $6,700,000 | $6,700,000 | ~2,100 | Angel Studios |
| The Strangers: Chapter 1 | $6,400,000 | $22,100,000 | 2,856 | Lionsgate |
| The Fall Guy | $5,600,000 | $71,800,000 | 2,955 | Universal Pictures |
| Challengers | $2,200,000 | $47,300,000 | 1,089 | MGM |
| Back to Black | $1,600,000 | $5,500,000 | 2,013 | Focus Features |
| Tarot | $1,000,000 | $17,400,000 | 864 | Sony / Screen Gems |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us
So it’s about $140 total box office for 4 days for top 10 movies. Not bad at all.