This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The fourth quarter of 2024 kicks off with the fall movie season’s next tentpole release, while last week’s successful #1 opener simultaneously looks to start displaying staying power.
Joker: Folie à Deux
October 4, 2024
Warner Bros. Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $50 – 60 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $44 – 57 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Joker: Folie à Deux has continued to display pre-release metric patterns well below our formerly bullish forecasts. As social media sentiment, critics’ reviews (47 percent fresh from 91 Rotten Tomatoes critics), and pre-sales have increasingly shown their weight in recent models, buzz for the sequel is more comparable to the kind of box office performance that was once expected for the original film ahead of its 2019 release.
- In a moviegoing climate that has increasingly leaned on demand for escapism in the post-pandemic era, the challenges of capturing lightning in a bottle twice with a dark and complicated character that historically has had no origin story on the big screen is pronounced. The Joker sequel will need strong walk-up business, continued casual audience interest in Joaquin Phoenix’s Oscar-winning role, and Lady Gaga’s fan base to reach beyond final expectations.
- Following a strong $35.8 million domestic start last weekend, The Wild Robot is poised to begin a leggy run through October and beyond on the back of stellar reception (98 percent audience score, 97 percent critics’ score). It will see a slightly inflated drop this weekend as it loses premium screens and those average ticket prices to the Joker sequel, but stabilization should occur quickly.
- While we have not received an updated location count for White Bird: A Wonder Story, pre-release tracking has been modest.
- Meanwhile, we have also not received an update on Saturday Night‘s planned expansion. Forecasts below are based on past comparable title performance patterns when expanding beyond platform release. (EDIT: Sony has confirmed it will play in 21 locations this weekend, so we’ve removed it from the forecast.)
Other Notable Wide Releases Not Forecast Below:
- Monster Summer (Pastime Pictures)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 54 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($65.97 million) and 29 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($142.7 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 6 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Joker: Folie à Deux | Warner Bros. Pictures | $53,600,000 | NEW | $53,600,000 | ~4,100 |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $19,500,000 | -45% | $63,300,000 | ~3,962 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $11,000,000 | -32% | $266,200,000 | ~3,600 |
| Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $6,000,000 | -34% | $47,900,000 | ~3,700 |
| Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $3,000,000 | -29% | $32,900,000 | ~2,300 |
| Saturday Night | Sony Pictures | n/a | n/a | n/a | 21 |
| White Bird: A Wonder Story | Lionsgate | $1,900,000 | NEW | $1,900,000 | TBD |
| Megalopolis | Lionsgate | $1,400,000 | -65% | $6,700,000 | ~1,854 |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $1,300,000 | -53% | $633,700,000 | ~1,400 |
| Never Let Go | Lionsgate | $1,300,000 | -42% | $10,500,000 | ~2,100 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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