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The apex of this summer’s box office has arrived as Disney and Marvel Studios approach with what is likely to be the biggest opening weekend of 2024, and since 2022 when Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness each earned over $180 million in their first frames.
Not to be counted out for holding power is Universal’s Twisters on the heels of its breakout $81.3 million bow last weekend and stellar word of mouth that will continue to propel it through the late summer season weeks.
Our full analysis and forecast for the weekend ahead:
Deadpool & Wolverine
July 26, 2024
Disney & Marvel Studios
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $160+ million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $171 – 203 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Deadpool & Wolverine has maintained a generally consistent pace in pre-release modeling with other Marvel Cinematic Universe tentpoles. Entering Wednesday, the crossover comedy-action sequel was trending 19 percent ahead of Thor: Love & Thunder‘s July 2022 preview showing of $29 million and 34 percent ahead of the Asgardian’s true Friday earnings ($40.6 million) in our market samples.
- On the Twisters front, a loss of premium screens to Disney’s tentpole will impact average ticket prices initially, but the film’s exceptional word of mouth (92 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes) could offset some of the audience crossover and upfront competition. We continue to expect Twisters will leg out strongly through the rest of summer, and perhaps regain some premium screen showtimes due to audience demand in the weeks ahead.
- Back to Deadpool & Wolverine, early reviews are largely enthusiastic for the anticipated two-hander with 175 Rotten Tomatoes critics yielding an 81 percent “Fresh” rating on the review aggregation site.
- Social media buzz has continued to swell around the pairing of Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman after years of friendly back-and-forth banter that has permeated pop culture.
- As the first Marvel Cinematic Universe film to release since last November’s The Marvels, there’s potential for pent-up demand among die-hard fans. In addition, the promise of a comedy-driven star vehicle could help bring back some casual viewers of the Marvel universe who’ve become more selective in their viewing habits after several divisive films in the broader franchise.
- As the MCU’s first R-rated film, some volatility can be expected in comparisons to other Disney-released Marvel films given the limitations of ticket purchasing and parental decisions that will be stronger factors for families that regularly took their young ones to see Marvel’s PG-13 content.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- Didi (Focus Features)
- The Fabulous Four (Bleecker Street)
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 23 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($209.8 million, the second frame of Barbie and Oppenheimer) and 66 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($155.6 million, when Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood opened strong against the second frame of The Lion King).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 28 | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $184,400,000 | $184,400,000 | NEW |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $38,100,000 | $155,000,000 | -53% |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $16,500,000 | $291,200,000 | -32% |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $9,000,000 | $613,500,000 | -30% |
| Longlegs | Neon | $6,700,000 | $58,700,000 | -44% |
| A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | $3,200,000 | $134,400,000 | -49% |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $1,400,000 | $192,000,000 | -48% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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