Weekend Forecast: MOANA 2 Targets Post-Thanksgiving Record Frame, WICKED Continues to Soar, and GLADIATOR II Will Remain Dominant Versus Openers

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

After Moana 2 blew away all realistic expectations, including our own “conservative” forecasts, with a record-shattering $225.4 million five-day Thanksgiving opening, the post-holiday corridor is in much better shape than recent years.

Overall, the trifecta of the Disney sequel, Wicked, and Gladiator II, anchored a total domestic box office market of more than $420 million during the long Thanksgiving break, topping all historical precedents for this time of year and marking one of the most attended moviegoing weekends in terms of foot traffic since the pre-pandemic peak years of 2018 and 2013.

With that said, the beat goes on… and the two blockbuster musicals will again overshadow most of the market to begin December.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Moana 2 may be trending more front-loaded than some expected after those initial preview and Wednesday numbers last week, but the haul is nothing to scoff at. Legs initially appear to have more in common with Wish, Ralph Breaks the Internet, and The Good Dinosaur than the likes of Encanto, Coco, or Frozen in terms of Thanksgiving openers, but the sheer volume of box office dollars in play for Moana 2 means another runaway record to come in its second frame as the top grossing sophomore weekend by a Thanksgiving wide opener (currently 2013’s Frozen, $31.6 million).
• Wicked is also in great shape heading into its third weekend after a stellar box office retention in the face of significant competition last week. Word of mouth and repeat screenings among die-hard fans should continue factoring heavily into the adaptation’s runway now that the pre-Christmas window begins in earnest and the opportunity for premium screen-sharing (alongside Moana 2 and Gladiator II) presents itself for at least another week. As of Tuesday, December 3, the film has already surpassed Sing ($270.3 million) as the fifth highest-grossing musical in domestic history and the highest ever among non-Disney releases (trailing only The Lion King (2019), Beauty and the Beast (2017), and both Frozen pics).
• Meanwhile, Gladiator II will keep a hold on most of the male moviegoing audience in its third frame with the primary competition being screen scarcity rather than actual new releases. It’ll not only keep sharing showtimes with the aforementioned musical blockbusters, but the film also contends with its own parent studio’s (Paramount) re-release of Interstellar in IMAX.
• On that note, the Christopher Nolan epic is celebrating its 10th anniversary this year and, as is usual for the filmmaker’s work, those IMAX shows have neared or reached capacity in many markets with limited showtimes over the next week. Like Gladiator II, the core audience here is predominately male and over the age of 30.
• Among other notable openers, Pushpa 2: The Rule (opening Thursday) looks like the latest Indian audience breakout that could make a dent at the box office with pre-sales not far off the pace of Kalki 2898 AD; Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- is the next anime fan-targeted content from Crunchyroll, opening in moderate release; and A24’s Y2K will go wide in over 2,000 locations with hopes of drawing some of the studio’s core film fan audience.
• Additional releases this weekend include Get Away (IFC Films), The Return (Bleecker Street), Werewolves (Briarcliff Entertainment), and Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), among others, but we’re not currently offering up public forecasts for these.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 132 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($59.4 million) and 73 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($79.7 million).