Weekend Forecast: Will WICKED and GLADIATOR II Soar to a Combined $200M+ Domestic Box Office Launch?

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

One of the most anticipated moviegoing weekends of 2024 arrives with the tandem of Wicked and Gladiator II set to storm movie theaters in an epic box office weekend that officially kickstarts the holiday cinema season.

Wicked
November 22, 2024
Universal Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $100 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $120 – 155 million

Gladiator II
November 22, 2024
Paramount Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $60 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $59 – 68 million

Bonhoeffer
November 22, 2024
Angel Studios
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2.5 – 5 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Wicked remains a force to be reckoned with in all pre-release tracking metrics. The film’s social media engagement and star power have helped power pre-existing fan bases and family appeal to strong pre-sales in sample markets among women of all ages. Ecstatic scores on Rotten Tomatoes (90 percent fresh from 185 critics and 99 percent fresh from early audiences) underline the potential for repeat viewings and audience expansion past opening shows into the holiday season.
• Wicked projections remain volatile as the film has lost some of its pacing against the likes of Barbie (as expected in conservative tracking in models), but we expect some relative back-loading into the weekend and beyond thanks to the family-friendly PG rating and messaging of the movie. PLF demand and a 160-plus-minute run time are also likely to create some spillover effect into the days after opening. Should the film reach the upper end of our forecasts, it would land among the ten best box office debuts in the post-pandemic theatrical era.
• Gladiator II remains on track for a strong counter-programming presence with strongest audience appeal from adult men. A 73 percent fresh score from 223 critics is encouraging overall as the film courts a similar audience that drove fellow R-rated franchise sequel John Wick: Chapter 4 to box office success last year. The sword-and-sandals epic sequel is also pacing ahead of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes at the same point. The film is likely to draw some adult female audience over time thanks to Denzel Washington’s buzzy performance, a star known to pull well with that demographic. Ridley Scott’s anticipated sequel boasts a strong PLF presence in IMAX that will further help kick up average ticket prices.
• Angel Studios returns with spy-based drama, Bonhoeffer, that aims to appeal to the studio’s values- and faith-based audience core. Trends at this stage are in line with most of the studio’s recent wide theatrical releases.
• A Real Pain will expand into semi-wide release at an estimated 1,000 locations, but we’re not offering up forecasts at this time.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 112 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($109.3 million) and 22 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($190.2 million).

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.