Following multiple tentpole releases in early June, the next-to-last frame of the month will be get a bit of a breather from the major studios and allow Focus Features to unfurl Jeff Nichols’ latest ensemble drama.
Our initial analysis and forecasts:
The Bikeriders
Focus Features
June 21, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Filmmaker Jeff Nichols as built his own following over the past decade with well-reviewed and/or commercially successful indie films such as Take Shelter, Mud, Midnight Special, and Loving.
- An ensemble cast led by Tom Hardy, Jodie Comer, and Austin Butler provides some star power to help this biker drama appeal to audiences in various regions of the country. Men and women could represent a fairly equal share of the target audience, while interest in middle America and outside coastal cities may be notable.
- Early reviews are very encouraging as the film boasts an 83 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes from 36 critics.
- Initial competition could be fairly light as Bad Boys: Ride or Die will be entering its third frame, although Kevin Costner’s first chapter of Horizon will arrive one week later on June 28 and provide more direct audience crossover (though likely leaning older). Whether or not the two can coexist heading into the Independence Day holiday corridor in early July will depend on each movie’s audience reception.
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week box office tracking will soon be regularly paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access supports BOT’s research and also includes ad-free viewing.
as of 5/24/24
| Release Date | Title | Rating | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast | Distributor |
| 5/31/2024 | Ezra | R | n/a | n/a | Bleecker Street | ||||
| 5/31/2024 | Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle | PG-13 | $3,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $5,300,000 | $9,900,000 | $7,400,000 | Sony / Crunchyroll |
| 5/31/2024 | Robot Dreams | NR | n/a | n/a | Neon | ||||
| 5/31/2024 | Summer Camp | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 5/31/2024 | The Young Woman and the Sea | PG | $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $18,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures |
| 6/7/2024 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die | R | $48,000,000 | $58,000,000 | $53,000,000 | $139,000,000 | $186,000,000 | $164,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 6/7/2024 | The Watchers | PG-13 | $13,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $37,300,000 | $62,300,000 | $49,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 6/14/2024 | Cora Bora | n/a | n/a | Brainstorm Media | |||||
| 6/14/2024 | Inside Out 2 | PG | $75,000,000 | $94,000,000 | $87,000,000 | $249,000,000 | $338,400,000 | $296,500,000 | Disney / Pixar |
| 6/14/2024 | Latency | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | The Bikeriders | R | $7,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $31,000,000 | Focus Features |
| 6/21/2024 | Janet Planet | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | A24 | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | Kinds of Kindness (Limited) | R | n/a | n/a | Searchlight Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.