Tracking & Forecasts

4-Week Tracking: Jeff Nichols’ THE BIKERIDERS Could Draw Healthy Counter-Programmer Results in Late June

Photo Credits: Focus Features & Adam Stone

Following multiple tentpole releases in early June, the next-to-last frame of the month will be get a bit of a breather from the major studios and allow Focus Features to unfurl Jeff Nichols’ latest ensemble drama.

Our initial analysis and forecasts:

The Bikeriders
Focus Features
June 21, 2024

Key Tracking Factors:

  • Filmmaker Jeff Nichols as built his own following over the past decade with well-reviewed and/or commercially successful indie films such as Take ShelterMudMidnight Special, and Loving.
  • An ensemble cast led by Tom Hardy, Jodie Comer, and Austin Butler provides some star power to help this biker drama appeal to audiences in various regions of the country. Men and women could represent a fairly equal share of the target audience, while interest in middle America and outside coastal cities may be notable.
  • Early reviews are very encouraging as the film boasts an 83 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes from 36 critics.
  • Initial competition could be fairly light as Bad Boys: Ride or Die will be entering its third frame, although Kevin Costner’s first chapter of Horizon will arrive one week later on June 28 and provide more direct audience crossover (though likely leaning older). Whether or not the two can coexist heading into the Independence Day holiday corridor in early July will depend on each movie’s audience reception.

This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week box office tracking will soon be regularly paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access supports BOT’s research and also includes ad-free viewing.

Extended 4-Week Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/24/24
Release Date Title Rating 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast Domestic Total LOW-END Domestic Total HIGH-END Domestic Total TARGET Forecast Distributor
5/31/2024 Ezra R n/a n/a Bleecker Street
5/31/2024 Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle PG-13 $3,500,000 $6,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,300,000 $9,900,000 $7,400,000 Sony / Crunchyroll
5/31/2024 Robot Dreams NR n/a n/a Neon
5/31/2024 Summer Camp PG-13 n/a n/a Roadside Attractions
5/31/2024 The Young Woman and the Sea PG $4,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $11,000,000 $26,000,000 $18,000,000 Walt Disney Pictures
6/7/2024 Bad Boys: Ride or Die R $48,000,000 $58,000,000 $53,000,000 $139,000,000 $186,000,000 $164,000,000 Sony / Columbia Pictures
6/7/2024 The Watchers PG-13 $13,000,000 $19,000,000 $17,500,000 $37,300,000 $62,300,000 $49,000,000 Warner Bros. Pictures
6/14/2024 Cora Bora n/a n/a Brainstorm Media
6/14/2024 Inside Out 2 PG $75,000,000 $94,000,000 $87,000,000 $249,000,000 $338,400,000 $296,500,000 Disney / Pixar
6/14/2024 Latency PG-13 n/a n/a Lionsgate
6/21/2024 The Bikeriders R $7,000,000 $13,000,000 $11,000,000 $20,000,000 $40,000,000 $31,000,000 Focus Features
6/21/2024 Janet Planet PG-13 n/a n/a A24
6/21/2024 Kinds of Kindness (Limited) R n/a n/a Searchlight Pictures

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.

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