This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Our weekly report dives into the middle of March with a handful of additions to the public forecast, current standings for the imminent holiday duo of Captain America and Paddington, plus other updates.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As pre-sales and marketing start to crescendo next week after the Super Bowl, Captain America: Brave New World remains in a prime position.. Promotional touring is underway with Anthony Mackie and Harrison Ford drumming up buzz about the film. Now, we wait for next week’s review embargo to get a fuller sense of whether or not the film will reach (or exceed) current forecast ranges.
- The second full weekend of March is slated for five wide releases now that Ketchup Entertainment has delayed their Looney Tunes acquisition by two weeks to that frame, presumably as a response to the success of Dog Man and the upcoming Paddington in Peru.
- Also on that weekend, Focus will court fans of adult drama-thrillers with Black Bag, Pinnacle Peak with The Last Supper will aim for the faith-based market that’s been dominated by a crop of other studios in recent years, Paramount hopes to reel in audiences with the high-concept action-comedy Novocaine, and A24 drops their latest psychological horror-drama with Opus.
- Novocaine likely boasts the most potential in this group of new releases, though its own buzz and reception on the prior week’s Mickey 17 will probably be impactful one way or another.
- Unfortunately, Opus has been met with underwhelming critics’ reviews (39 percent fresh from 28 Rotten Tomatoes submissions). The saturation of genre films in this space since last year and through this winter will also probably limit the film from the studio’s more high-performing box office ranges.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/6/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
2/10/2025 |
Attack on Titan the Movie: THE LAST ATTACK |
Sony Pictures |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/13/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/13/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Armand (Expansion) |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$86,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$102,000,000 |
$207,000,000 |
$274,000,000 |
$240,000,000 |
2.67 |
2/14/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/14/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$16,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$19,500,000 (-7%) |
$23,600,000 (-7%) |
$59,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$69,000,000 (-7%) |
3.54 |
2/15/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/15/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/16/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/16/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/20/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/21/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/21/2025 |
The Monkey |
NEON |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$79,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
2.90 |
|
2/21/2025 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$37,500,000 |
3.75 |
|
2/22/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/22/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/23/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/23/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/27/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/27/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
Last Breath |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,250,000 |
3.25 |
|
2/28/2025 |
Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning- |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
My Dead Friend Zoe |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
Riff Raff |
Roadside Attractions |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/1/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/1/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/2/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/2/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
In the Lost Lands |
Vertical Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
Night of the Zoopocalypse |
Viva Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,500,000 |
$46,500,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
3.02 |
|
3/7/2025 |
Queen of the Ring |
Sumerian |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
Rule Breakers |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$16,500,000 |
||
3/7/2025 |
The Senior |
Freestyle Releasing / Wayfarer Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
Seven Veils |
XYZ Films / Variance |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/14/2025 |
Black Bag |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
3.20 |
|
3/14/2025 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$10,800,000 |
3.60 |
|
3/14/2025 |
The Last Supper |
Pinnacle Peak |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
2.50 |
|
3/14/2025 |
Novocaine |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
$32,600,000 |
3.62 |
|
3/14/2025 |
Opus |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
2.27 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.