The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Brief update this week on the written analysis side of things as summer’s list of heavy hitters is already beginning to wind down. Full forecast calendar below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps is still in steady territory as it looks to benefit from being the next-on-deck tentpole release following Superman, meaning pre-sale pacing will accelerate organically over the next two weeks.
- Thursday’s domestic previews for July 24 are currently pacing toward a $25 million start with potential to climb if reviews and buzz escalate. Embargoes will lift the morning of July 22.
- Smurfs is trending even lower than bearish models had already forecast in recent weeks. It’s likely to pick up slight pace among parents with young kids next week, but the IP simply isn’t as popular as other franchises among today’s youth and there won’t be much of a premium screen presence.
- Weekend pre-sales in exhibitor samples are pacing far below Elio and The Garfield Movie, increasing chances of a sub-$10 million opening weekend if things don’t turn around.
- I Know What You Did Last Summer is behind the pacing of high-performing legacy horror franchise sequels such as Final Destination: Bloodlines, Scream VI, and the recent Halloween films. This was generally baked into previous forecasts already, but it remains to be seen if interest picks up next week.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/10/25
(NOTE: Pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
7/16/2025 |
Jujutsu Kaisen: Hidden Inventory/Premature Death |
GKIDS |
||||||
7/18/2025 |
Eddington |
A24 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
||
7/18/2025 |
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) |
Sony Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
||
7/18/2025 |
Smurfs |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
||
7/25/2025 |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney |
$125,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
$277,000,000 |
$395,000,000 |
||
7/25/2025 |
The Home |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
7/25/2025 |
House on Eden |
IFC Entertainment Group |
||||||
7/25/2025 |
Oh, Hi! |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
7/30/2025 |
BTS Army: Forever We Are Young |
Trafalgar Releasing |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
||
7/30/2025 |
Together |
NEON |
||||||
8/1/2025 |
Architecton |
A24 |
||||||
8/1/2025 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$26,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
$143,000,000 |
||
8/1/2025 |
The Naked Gun (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
$23,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$95,000,000 |
||
8/3/2025 |
Sunset Boulevard |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
8/6/2025 |
Sketch |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
||
8/8/2025 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$45,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
$190,000,000 |
||
8/8/2025 |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$23,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$66,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
||
8/14/2025 |
Shin Godzilla |
GKIDS |
||||||
8/15/2025 |
Americana |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
||
8/15/2025 |
Eli Roth Presents: Jimmy and Stiggs |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
8/15/2025 |
Highest 2 Lowest |
A24 |
||||||
8/15/2025 |
Nobody 2 |
Universal Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.