The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
With the holiday weekend ahead, we’re running with a shorter-than-usual update this week to focus on immediate releases whose prospects continue to climb. Next week’s report will feature early outlooks on Disney’s Tron: Ares.
Despite no presence of a Beetlejuice sequel to kick off fall movie season with a $100 million-plus opener, a couple of fan-favorite franchises are aiming to write a different narrative this September that could challenge for $550 million domestically if everything fires on all cylinders. That would be a relative win given that expectations were much lower very recently (of note, last September generated an estimated $598 million).
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Conjuring: Last Rites has exceled in late-stage marketing and initial pre-sales, outperforming all previous films in the franchise in our exhibitor sample markets. The franchise finale is also pacing ahead of all 2025 horror films at the same point in Fandango’s pre-sale cycle, continuing a dominant run for the genre this year that has seen breakouts from Weapons, 28 Years Later, Final Destination: Bloodlines, and Sinners during just the last four months.
- Likewise, Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle shows no signs of slowing down after setting anime records in its pre-sale start. We still expect minimal walk-up business come release weekend, but it’s clear this first part of the story-ending trilogy is riding a massive wave of momentum and international success, now looking to turn that into significant audience expansion from previous series and genre installments domestically.
- With the explosion of those films in forecasts, plus expected counter-programming success from Hamilton and Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale as the latter paces ahead of A New Era in tracking at the same point, late September may continue to see fluctuations in title-level forecasts. Market competition will be notable after early September’s string of likely hits.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/28/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
9/5/2025 |
Baaghi 4 |
FunAsia Films |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$54,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$122,000,000 |
$169,000,000 |
$149,000,000 |
9/5/2025 |
Hamilton |
Disney |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$22,700,000 |
9/5/2025 |
The Legend of Hei 2 |
GKIDS |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
Light of the World |
Salvation Poem Project |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
Twinless |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
9/12/2025 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony Pictures |
$53,000,000 |
$63,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$123,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
9/12/2025 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$15,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
9/12/2025 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
9/12/2025 |
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
9/12/2025 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary) |
Disney |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$2,300,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
9/18/2025 |
Sight & Sound Presents: NOAH – Live! |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
9/18/2025 |
Afterburn |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
Apollo 13 (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony Pictures |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
9/19/2025 |
Him |
Universal Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
9/19/2025 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
9/19/2025 |
Waltzing With Brando |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
9/26/2025 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
9/26/2025 |
The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
Lionsgate |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$22,700,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Anemone (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$10,700,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Bone Lake |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Casper (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Good Boy |
IFC Entertainment Group |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$51,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.