The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
We’re sticking to a five-week outlook for at least another round, mainly to focus on this week’s biggest addition and the continuing growth of upcoming September titles.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Tron: Ares is positioned as one of this October’s key marquee releases, especially now that Warner Bros. has vacated the month and sent Mortal Kombat II to May 2026.
- Disney’s anticipated three-quel in the decades-spanning trilogy has ignited fan enthusiasm since speculation ran rampant for years before production began. 2010’s Tron: Legacy was a global box office crowd-pleaser that revived a dormant, niche brand with its $400 million haul at the time, one of the early benefactors of Avatar‘s temporary re-popularization of 3D in cinemas.
- Legacy has since grown to become as big of a (if not bigger) cult classic than its 1982 predecessor, spawning a generation of millennial-leaning fans (in no small part to thanks to Daft Punk’s now-iconic soundtrack). Buzz is already building in a noticeable way for Nine Inch Nails’ musical creations in this film.
- That goodwill in mind, the flip side here is that Ares boasts an entirely new cast without the return of any major characters from Legacy (sans Jeff Bridges in what may or may not be a minor appearance).
- Ares pre-sales began in timely fashion yesterday. Results were on par with expectations beforehand, drawing strong fan interest in IMAX and premium formats. Across all exhibitor samples, the first day was comparable to those of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and Venom: The Last Dance, while topping Alien: Romulus and coming not far behind Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Digging even further back, there are strong correlations to Blade Runner 2049 at this stage in marketing.
- It remains to be seen whether Disney’s marketing campaign can extend Ares casual audience appeal beyond the core demographic that may alternatively lead to a more front-loaded performance.
- Closer to home, several September releases continue to trend upward in the wake of what looks to also be an over-performing debut from The Conjuring: Last Rites as it heads for a likely $70-75 million+ domestic start.
- Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle has shown few signs of slowing down in what’s shaping up to the biggest anime performer of all time in the domestic market. Final week pre-sale pacing will be crucial toward determining what its ultimate ceiling could be as expectations still dictate that walk-up and casual audience business will be limited.
- Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale also continues to shape up well ahead of its debut next week with fans excited to visit the franchise one last time. Early reviews are very positive at 90 percent fresh from 21 Rotten Tomatoes critics.
- Similarly, The Long Walk is countering next week’s openers with a play toward young adults in the mainstream sector. From 54 reviews, it stands at 94 percent fresh.
- Trends for A Big Bold Beautiful Journey have yet to pick up, while Him‘s metrics are healthy (though forecasts may yet be impacted going forward as the review embargo will not lift until midnight of preview day), and Avatar: The Way of Water‘s re-release has been confirmed to screen exclusively in 3D and 3D premium screens.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/4/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
9/12/2025 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony Pictures |
$65,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$150,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$17,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues |
Bleecker Street |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$12,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary) |
Disney |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,300,000 |
$7,500,000 |
||
9/18/2025 |
Sight & Sound Presents: NOAH – Live! |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
9/18/2025 |
Afterburn |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
Apollo 13 (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$33,000,000 |
||
9/19/2025 |
Him |
Universal Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
||
9/19/2025 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
||
9/19/2025 |
Waltzing With Brando |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$73,000,000 |
||
9/26/2025 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
||
9/26/2025 |
The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
Lionsgate |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Anemone (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
$6,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Bone Lake |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Casper (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Good Boy |
IFC Entertainment Group |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Untitled Zurty Studios Film (10/3/25) |
Zurty Studios |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
After the Hunt (Limited) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Anemone (Moderate Expansion) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Fairyland |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Kiss of the Spider Woman |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Roofman |
Paramount Pictures |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
||
10/10/2025 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$34,000,000 |
||
10/10/2025 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$42,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.