This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update takes a quick look at mid-November’s key release before the busy pre-Thanksgiving frame that will see the highly anticipated duet of Gladiator II and Wicked open on November 22, not to mention Moana 2 five days later. Before that, however, the Christmas season begins a little early with Red One on November 15.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Red One‘s biggest advantages will be star power in Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans combined with family-friendly comedy that’s accessible to all ages. Johnson in particular has appeal in this arena thanks to the success of the Jumanji films. There is plenty of criticism about the initial trailers online, indicating this may have a harder time reaching the original live-action, family-friendly success among critics and non-families compared to a film like IF earlier this year, but holiday legs could eventually carry it depending on the eventual streaming window with distributor Amazon. That being said, competition is stiff over the Thanksgiving period and in mid-to-late December, so there is volatility to upside forecasts.
- Minor adjustments to Smile 2 and Venom: The Last Dance can be found below as both films trend slightly off previous patterns. We continue to emphasize that both are expected to be backloaded in pre-sales, though. Smile 2‘s debut next week remains generally in line with recent horror sequels such as Insidious: The Red Door, while Last Dance is well off the pace of other comic book films but shows some similar pathing to Twisters in casual audience-friendly models.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/10/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 10/17/2024 | Tom Petty: Heartbreakers Beach Party | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 10/18/2024 | Goodrich | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Hocus Pocus (2024 Re-Issue) | $1,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $3,600,000 | $9,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Rumours | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Smile 2 | $24,000,000 | $33,000,000 | $27,500,000 (-5%) | $56,000,000 | $82,900,000 | $63,900,000 (-5%) |
| 10/18/2024 | Stockholm Bloodbath | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/20/2024 | Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/23/2024 | Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/25/2024 | Conclave | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,000,000 (+33%) | $13,000,000 | $34,000,000 | $21,000,000 (+33%) |
| 10/25/2024 | Venom: The Last Dance | $75,000,000 | $101,000,000 | $86,000,000 (-9%) | $173,000,000 | $222,000,000 | $192,000,000 (-9%) |
| 11/1/2024 | Absolution | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Blitz | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Here | $9,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $30,300,000 | $59,500,000 | $40,000,000 |
| 11/1/2024 | Hitpig | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Juror #2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 11/1/2024 | My Dead Friend Zoe | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 11/1/2024 | A Real Pain (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Weekend in Taipei | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/3/2024 | John Wick (10th Anniversary) (11/3 and 11/6 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/6/2024 | John Wick (10th Anniversary) (11/3 and 11/6 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/8/2024 | 72 Hours | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/8/2024 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $10,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $34,000,000 | $66,000,000 | $48,000,000 |
| 11/8/2024 | Heretic | $8,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $41,000,000 | $28,000,000 |
| 11/8/2024 | OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom | $3,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $15,200,000 | $8,400,000 |
| 11/8/2024 | Small Things Like These | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/15/2024 | Red One | $20,000,000 | $35,000,000 | $29,000,000 | $81,000,000 | $136,000,000 | $114,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.