This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
An entire movie industry is hoping the weekend of November 22, 2024 delivers on its potential to become one of the biggest moviegoing frames of the holiday season, if not the entire year. The elephant in the room: dreams of another “Barbenheimer”-type phenomenon are not-so-secretly what exhibitors, studios, and many movie fans have in mind.
Can Universal’s Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II (“Wickiator”, anyone? No?) live up to even a hearty portion of that lightning-in-a-bottle billing last year?
As always, no two films are created equally. That being said, let’s not forget that Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters — while opening one week apart — similarly enjoyed simultaneous blockbuster success this past summer.
Here’s an early outlook, plus key updates on other upcoming releases, with the usual caveat that all tracking and forecasts are moving targets.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Getting the cautious news out of the way first, expectations for Venom: The Last Dance are tentatively moving toward more cautious territory as tracking continues to register behind our previously more bullish ranges. If that sounds familiar, something similar happened with the Joker sequel in late September. Venom is cut from a very different cloth and has proven to be a back-loaded, walk-up audience friendly franchise across its 2018 and 2021 iterations.
- Still, it’s hard to ignore that Last Dance is opening in a different climate from either previous Venom entry with regards to moviegoer sentiment toward comic book films. Social media footprints and exhibitor pre-sales are currently pacing behind key comparison titles, so next week’s final ramp-up will again be important for the Tom Hardy-led trilogy-capper.
- Looking ahead to the pre-Thanksgiving frame of next month, Paramount’s Gladiator II and Universal’s Wicked are shaping up to be a powerhouse duo. The question is “just how powerful?” and that won’t be known with higher confidence for a few more weeks.
- Since pre-sales began last week, Wicked has demonstrated its prowess as one of the top advance ticket performers of the past two years. There’s a considerable fan base driving early interest, which means momentum will be key to observe over the next five weeks. The brand has strong pull with female audiences of all ages thanks to the generational IP, combined with a popular source novel, the phenomenally successful Broadway play, and the power of Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo’s younger fan bases and strong social followings.
- As always, Wicked‘s reviews will be critical to track if this is to break out even further and become an award season contender with a long runway through the holidays and early new year. It’s also worth noting the film may or may not have a cliffhanger factor (being the first of two planned films) that sways word of mouth, while Moana 2 will also court young and female-driven audiences beginning just five days later.
- Meanwhile, Gladiator II is no slouch in early tracking either. Counter-programming the fantasy musical adaptation is a male-driven epic nearly a quarter-century in the making. Early buzz is strong as most of the first batch of trailer releases have garnered positive industry and audience/social reception. Word of mouth could be a big driver as it faces minimal direct competition in the initial weeks after release. A slow-burn play is very possible here, especially as the film will be sharing premium screens with a variety of movies over the holiday corridor.
- Additionally, Ridley Scott’s return as a director is driving Gladiator II‘s interest among the core demographic (men over 35), while up-and-coming star Paul Mescal, a strong ensemble cast, strong premium format appeal, and event-level moviemaking are drawing the younger side of that bracket. Again, ongoing buzz and reviews will be critical here as the original Oscar-winning film is widely considered a classic that will be challenging to live up to in the minds of increasingly selective moviegoers.
- In the case of both films, proximity to Thanksgiving (six days after their release) could skew forecasts and/or produce back-loaded runs as families plan to see one or both films during their holiday vacations rather than opening weekend itself.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/17/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 10/25/2024 | Conclave | $6,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $8,000,000 (+33%) | $19,500,000 | $39,000,000 | $28,000,000 (+33%) |
| 10/25/2024 | Venom: The Last Dance | $45,000,000 | $72,000,000 | $61,000,000 (-29%) | $104,000,000 | $160,000,000 | $129,000,000 (-29%) |
| 11/1/2024 | Here | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $40,000,000 |
| 11/8/2024 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,500,000 (-12%) | $27,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $42,500,000 (-12%) |
| 11/8/2024 | Heretic | $8,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $41,000,000 | $28,000,000 |
| 11/8/2024 | OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom | $3,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $4,000,000 (-20%) | $4,500,000 | $12,400,000 | $6,700,000 (-20%) |
| 11/15/2024 | Red One | $18,000,000 | $29,000,000 | TBD | $73,000,000 | $113,000,000 | TBD |
| 11/22/2024 | Bonhoeffer | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| 11/22/2024 | Gladiator II | $53,000,000 | $75,000,000 | $66,000,000 | $152,000,000 | $249,000,000 | $240,000,000 |
| 11/22/2024 | Wicked | $96,000,000 | $150,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $240,000,000 | $480,000,000 | $365,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.