This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s forward-looking report in the short-term box office landscape previews early prospects for Tom Hanks, Robin Wright, and Robert Zemeckis’ new collaboration set for release in November, plus key updates on the Joker sequel and other current forecasts.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Near term, Joker: Folie à Deux continues to lag behind the pace of previous expectations. The sequel is increasingly poised for a total domestic run closer to what was once its projected opening weekend in overly bullish models. Since then, the sequel has run into middling critics’ reviews (not unlike the 2019 predecessor). However, social media growth and pre-sale activity have not countered that as the film is trailing the likes of Black Adam, The Flash, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, and John Wick: Chapter 4.
- As for this week’s new addition to the public forecast, Robert Zemeckis reunites Tom Hanks and Robin Wright from the trio’s Forrest Gump days for November 1’s Here. Adult-driven dramas have had a challenged time at the box office in the post-pandemic moviegoing world, so word of mouth, star power and a possible award season run will hope to drive long-term business for the film as it bows ahead of a fairly competitive core holiday window.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/26/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 10/3/2024 | House of Spoils | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Joker: Folie à Deux | $48,000,000 | $68,000,000 | $55,500,000 (-25%) | $111,000,000 | $175,000,000 | $122,000,000 (-25%) |
| 10/4/2024 | Monster Summer | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Saturday Night (Limited Expansion) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | $3,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $5,500,000 (-8%) | $7,200,000 | $23,000,000 | $15,600,000 (-8%) |
| 10/6/2024 | Botchi za ro kku (Special Engagement) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | The Apprentice | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Chosen Family | n/a | |||||
| 10/11/2024 | The Man in the White Van | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $6,700,000 | $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | The Nightmare Before Christmas (2024 Re-Issue) | $3,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Piece By Piece | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | Rumours | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Saturday Night | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $56,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Terrifier 3 | $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $20,250,000 | $20,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | We Live In Time (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Goodrich | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Hocus Pocus (2024 Re-Issue) | $1,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $3,600,000 | $9,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Smile 2 | $28,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $31,000,000 | $65,000,000 | $100,500,000 | $72,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Stockholm Bloodbath | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/20/2024 | Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/23/2024 | Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/25/2024 | Conclave | $3,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| 10/25/2024 | Nickel Boys (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/25/2024 | Venom: The Last Dance | $87,000,000 | $107,000,000 | $95,000,000 | $201,000,000 | $251,000,000 | $212,000,000 |
| 11/1/2024 | Absolution | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Blitz | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Here | $11,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $68,000,000 | $52,000,000 |
| 11/1/2024 | Hitpig | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | My Dead Friend Zoe | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 11/1/2024 | A Real Pain (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 11/1/2024 | Weekend in Taipei | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.