This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update takes a first look at the fourth quarter of the year, set to kick with Joker: Folie à Deux on October 4.
Additional updates are also highlighted below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Joker: Folie à Deux is primed to build on the commercial and award-winning success of its 2019 predecessor, which still owns the October domestic opening record with $96.2 million, also currently the fifth highest R-rated debut in history.
- Coupled with the return of Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix as the title character, the addition of Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn has bolstered enthusiasm for this follow-up among the built-in DC audience and her own fan base. Social media traction is very healthy at this stage before release with signals pointing to stronger upfront demand for the sequel than the first film, a trend likely to accelerate with Gaga’s presumed promotion of the film on her wide-reaching social channels as release approaches.
- The sequel has oft been described as having musical elements without being a traditional musical. How this plays out within the narrative and tone of the film could be important to consider from moviegoers’ perspectives given expectations will be high after the previous film, which owns an 89 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Direct competition will be fairly light throughout October before Venom: The Last Dance bows on October 25.
Other Updates:
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice continues to soar in pre-release metrics and pre-sales as it paces ahead of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire by 167 percent and slightly ahead of Five Nights at Freddy’s in our sample markets.
- Other upcoming films such as The Front Room, Usher: Rendezvous in Paris, Am I Racist?, The Killer’s Game, Bagman, Megalopolis, and White Bird: A Wonder Story have been added to the forecast.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/29/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio / Distributor | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 9/4/2024 | The Greatest of All Time | AGS Entertainment | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $95,000,000 | $125,000,000 | $109,000,000 (+24%) | $241,000,000 | $331,000,000 | $290,200,000 (+24%) |
| 9/6/2024 | The Front Room | A24 | $3,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $3,300,000 | $8,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $9,500,000 |
| 9/6/2024 | El Candidato Honesto | Cinematica Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | I’ll Be Right There | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | Lover of Men: The Untold Story of Abraham Lincoln | Atlas Distribution | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust | Fathom Events | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | Usher: Rendezvous in Paris | AMC Theatres / Trafalgar Releasing | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| 9/13/2024 | Am I Racist? | SDG Releasing | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $29,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| 9/13/2024 | Believer | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | The Killer’s Game | Lionsgate | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 9/13/2024 | DAN DA DAN: First Encounter | GKIDS | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Meanwhile on Earth | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $15,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $16,500,000 | $42,400,000 | $65,000,000 | $50,200,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | A Different Man (Limited) | A24 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Lee (Limited) | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Never Let Go | Lionsgate | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | The Substance | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $37,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $93,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $120,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | Wolfs (Limited) | Sony Pictures / Apple Original Films | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/21/2024 | Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (9/21 and 9/25) | Fathom Events | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Azrael | Shudder & IFC Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Bagman | Lionsgate | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Lee (Wide) | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | Megalopolis | Lionsgate | $8,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $9,500,000 | $18,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | The Wild Robot | Universal / DreamWorks Animation | $16,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $65,000,000 | $113,000,000 | $83,000,000 |
| 10/3/2024 | House of Spoils | Amazon MGM Studios | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Joker: Folie à Deux | Warner Bros. Pictures | $120,000,000 | $150,000,000 | $138,000,000 | $277,000,000 | $404,000,000 | $350,000,000 |
| 10/4/2024 | Monster Summer | Pastime Pictures | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | Warner Bros. Pictures | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.