This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Our look ahead into November continues this week with a brief analysis on key titles opening for the month’s second frame, plus updates on other upcoming fall releases.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Best Christmas Pageant Ever has the early makings of a holiday sleeper with family appeal, a generationally popular source novel, faith-based roots, and a recognizable cast led by Judy Greer and Pete Holmes. The film’s preliminary comparison models are films such as Playing With Fire and Instant Family, as well as various faith-driven titles with the involvement of Kingdom Story Company and potential grassroots marketing among churches.
- A24 is no stranger to delivering solid box office results with original thrillers. Social buzz for Heretic and Hugh Grant’s lead performance are already clicking in early marketing. The post-Halloween corridor isn’t known for consistently delivering similar genre breakouts, but this could standout among the indie faithful.
- Sony and Crunchyroll will similarly aim for a targeted niche audience on the second November frame with OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom poised to attract anime fans. An IMAX and PLF footprint will further boost prospects.
- Nearer term, pre-sales for Smile 2 and Venom: The Last Dance recently began with generally expected results. On the former front, horror sequels can be challenging as some often see diminished returns, but we remain generally optimistic given the film’s proximity to Halloween. As for Sony’s Marvel sequel, the franchise has a history of being back-loaded in the pre-sale window with strong walk-up business, so it could be another week or two before sales began show full potential or perhaps warrant any notable forecast adjustments.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/3/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
Release Date |
Title |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
10/10/2024 |
Average Joe |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/11/2024 |
The Apprentice |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,500,000 (+38%) |
$9,500,000 |
$21,300,000 |
$17,900,000 (+38%) |
10/11/2024 |
Chosen Family |
n/a |
|||||
10/11/2024 |
The Man in the White Van |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/11/2024 |
My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,500,000 (-19%) |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$11,400,000 (-19%) |
10/11/2024 |
The Nightmare Before Christmas (2024 Re-Issue) |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
10/11/2024 |
Piece By Piece |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/11/2024 |
Saturday Night |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,500,000 (-14%) |
$20,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
$38,900,000 (-14%) |
10/11/2024 |
Terrifier 3 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$7,000,000 (-13%) |
$9,000,000 |
$20,250,000 |
$17,000,000 (-13%) |
10/11/2024 |
We Live In Time (Limited) |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/17/2024 |
Tom Petty: Heartbreakers Beach Party |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
10/18/2024 |
Goodrich |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/18/2024 |
Hocus Pocus (2024 Re-Issue) |
$1,500,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$3,600,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
10/18/2024 |
Rumours |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
10/18/2024 |
Smile 2 |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$29,000,000 (-6%) |
$58,000,000 |
$87,900,000 |
$67,400,000 (-6%) |
10/18/2024 |
Stockholm Bloodbath |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/20/2024 |
Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/23/2024 |
Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
10/25/2024 |
Conclave |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
10/25/2024 |
Venom: The Last Dance |
$87,000,000 |
$107,000,000 |
$95,000,000 |
$201,000,000 |
$235,000,000 |
$212,000,000 |
11/1/2024 |
Absolution |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
11/1/2024 |
Blitz |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
11/1/2024 |
Here |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$10,000,000 (-23%) |
$30,300,000 |
$59,500,000 |
$40,000,000 (-23%) |
11/1/2024 |
Hitpig |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
11/1/2024 |
Juror #2 |
TBD |
TBD |
||||
11/1/2024 |
My Dead Friend Zoe |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
11/1/2024 |
A Real Pain (Limited) |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
11/1/2024 |
Weekend in Taipei |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
11/3/2024 |
John Wick (10th Anniversary) (11/3 and 11/6 only) |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
11/6/2024 |
John Wick (10th Anniversary) (11/3 and 11/6 only) |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
11/8/2024 |
72 Hours |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
11/8/2024 |
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$66,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
11/8/2024 |
Heretic |
$8,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
11/8/2024 |
OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$15,200,000 |
$8,400,000 |
11/8/2024 |
Small Things Like These |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.