This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update continues to look forward into September and early October with the following updates and additions.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Smile 2 is this week’s key addition and, although pre-sales have yet to begin, it’s pre-release social drivers are encouraging. Trailer placement in front of key summer releases has resulted in healthy awareness and conversation for the follow-up to 2022’s sleeper breakout that legged out from a $22 million debut to $105.9 million domestically. Proximity to Halloween this year should aid appeal for spooky season moviegoers, although competing against the PG-13 third Venom film in its second frame will be no small task.
- Two weeks ago, we offered up initial forecasts for Joker: Folie à Deux that ranged from moderate to bullish at the time. Unfortunately, those models have been significantly impacted by the sequel’s mixed reviews from critics (62 percent fresh from 47 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far) and early pre-sales monitoring in our sample exhibitor markets that’s more in line with The Flash and John Wick: Chapter 4 than The Batman. While the previous film ultimately proved to have a clear divide between critics and audiences, Folie appears for the time being to have bigger challenge ahead of it with a need for buzz to build outside the core fan base.
- Conversely, trends for Transformers One and The Wild Robot remain encouraging as the animated releases will compete for market share during the heart of fall season leading into mid-to-late November. Industry reactions to the latter indicate it could have a very leggy box office run.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/12/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 9/20/2024 | A Different Man (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Lee (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Never Let Go | $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $8,800,000 | $21,600,000 | $10,400,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | The Substance | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Transformers One | $43,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $44,000,000 | $101,000,000 | $147,000,000 | $135,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | Wolfs (Limited) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/21/2024 | Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (9/21 and 9/25 only) (9/26 – 10/3) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/26/2024 | Howl’s Moving Castle (20th Anniversary) | ||||||
| 9/27/2024 | Azrael | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Bagman | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Lee (Wide) | $2,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Megalopolis | $8,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $9,500,000 | $18,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | My Old Ass (Wide Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | Saturday Night (LA + NY Platform) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | The Wild Robot | $24,000,000 | $33,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $97,000,000 | $149,000,000 | $134,000,000 |
| 10/3/2024 | House of Spoils | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Joker: Folie à Deux | $65,000,000 | $85,000,000 | $77,000,000 | $150,000,000 | $222,000,000 | $168,000,000 |
| 10/4/2024 | Monster Summer | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Saturday Night (Limited Expansion) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | The Apprentice | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Chosen Family | n/a | |||||
| 10/11/2024 | The Man in the White Van | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next | $6,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Piece By Piece | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | Rumours | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Saturday Night | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $56,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Terrifier 3 | $5,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $24,750,000 | $20,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | We Live In Time (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Goodrich | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Smile 2 | $28,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $31,000,000 | $65,000,000 | $100,500,000 | $72,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Stockholm Bloodbath | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling