This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s outlook continues a peak at September’s early fall slate alongside the most current projections for key August releases.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Universal and Blumhouse will aim to continue their successful track record with the James McAvoy-led Speak No Evil, a remake of the popular 2022 Danish thriller. With several significant releases between now and this title’s planned mid-September release, forecasts could evolve as they often do for non-franchise and thriller/horror releases. Trailer placement has been considerably strong in front of similar genre theatrical releases this summer. The film is positioned as the main adult-skewing, horror-thriller of September with little in the way of direct competition until mid-October’s Smile 2, although Speak No Evil does run up against the second and ongoing frames of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, followed by Never Let Go later in the month and Joker: Folie à Deux in October.
- Alien: Romulus continues to show strong signals from its core fan base of sci-fi and horror fans as pre-sales from our sample theatrical markets pace well ahead of where Furiosa stood at the same point and slightly ahead of Scream VI.
- The first few days of pre-sales for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice have reinforced our bullish forecasts published last week as the horror-comedy sequel looks poised to kick off the fall season on a very strong note. We’ll continue to monitor pre-release buzz in case forecast adjustments are needed over the next few weeks.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/9/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
as of 8/9/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 8/16/2024 | Alien: Romulus | Disney / 20th Century Studios | $41,000,000 | $51,000,000 | $46,000,000 | $82,000,000 | $110,000,000 | $102,900,000 |
| 8/16/2024 | Consumed | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/16/2024 | My Penguin Friend | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/16/2024 | Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure | Falling Forward Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/16/2024 | Skincare | IFC Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/23/2024 | Blink Twice | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/23/2024 | The Crow | Lionsgate | $7,500,000 | $11,000,000 | $9,100,000 | $15,800,000 | $28,600,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 8/23/2024 | The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,500,000 | $20,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $34,000,000 |
| 8/29/2024 | Shaun of the Dead (2024 Re-Issue in Dolby Cinema) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | 1992 | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | AfrAId | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $14,500,000 | $34,600,000 | $18,000,000 |
| 8/30/2024 | City of Dreams | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/30/2024 | Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | Slingshot | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $57,000,000 | $79,000,000 | $76,000,000 | $143,000,000 | $229,800,000 | $202,300,000 |
| 9/6/2024 | The Front Room | A24 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/6/2024 | I’ll Be Right There | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust | Fathom Events | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | Usher: Rendezvous in Paris | AMC Theatres / Trafalgar Releasing | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Am I Racist? | SDG Releasing | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Believer | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | The Killer’s Game | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/13/2024 | DAN DA DAN: First Encounter | GKIDS | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Meanwhile on Earth | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $15,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $16,500,000 | $42,400,000 | $65,000,000 | $50,200,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.