Tracking & Forecasts

5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: TRANSFORMERS ONE and NEVER LET GO Early Projections, Plus BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE and More Updates

Photo Credits: Universal Pictures ("Speak No Evil"); Haris Zambarloukos & Warner Bros. Pictures ("Beetlejuice Beetlejuice"); Paramount Pictures ("Transformers One")

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

This week’s update continues our look ahead into a promising September slate with five-week projections for Paramount’s latest Transformers project, Lionsgate’s Never Let Go, and updated forecasts for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and other upcoming films.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • Transformers One is positioned as one of the marquee animated releases of the fall season with a varied male fan base of all ages courted as the primary audience. Early buzz is healthy and it could serve as a strong counter-programmer to live action tentpoles such as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice‘s stretch weekends and October’s adult-aimed Joker sequel. The school season and animated approach may limit casual audience appeal relative to past Transformers films, but the IP remains strong.
  • Halle Berry stars in the thriller Never Let Go and could draw a modest female-driven audience alongside director Alexandre Aja’s (Crawl) own following. Later marketing may determine how high its ceiling can go as it opens one week after Speak No Evil and two weeks before the Joker sequel.
  • Closer to the home front, we’re slightly lowering projections for next week’s The Crow and The Forge, as well as August 30’s AfrAId, as late summer moviegoing may briefly slow down between major releases.
  • Conversely, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice continues to match and exceed our bullish model projections from prior weeks, now showing signals to climb even higher. Pre-sales are notably ahead of the pace of TwistersFive Nights at Freddy’s, and other comparable titles in our market sampling. The remaining caution is that a pre-existing fan base could skew upfront demand to some extent, but its potential as a broadly appealing, family-friendly holiday sequel also remains highly weighted in forecasts.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/15/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)

Release Date
Title
Studio
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total TARGET Forecast
8/23/2024
Blink Twice
Amazon / MGM
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/23/2024
The Crow
Lionsgate
$6,000,000
$10,000,000
$6,500,000
$12,600,000
$26,000,000
$15,700,000
8/23/2024
The Forge
Sony / AFFIRM Films
$5,500,000
$10,000,000
$6,500,000
$15,700,000
$34,000,000
$23,000,000
8/29/2024
Shaun of the Dead (2024 Re-Issue in Dolby Cinema)
Focus Features
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
1992
Lionsgate
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
AfrAId
Sony / Columbia Pictures
$7,000,000
$11,000,000
$7,500,000
$14,500,000
$31,700,000
$16,900,000
8/30/2024
City of Dreams
Roadside Attractions
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
Reagan
ShowBiz Direct
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8/30/2024
Slingshot
Bleecker Street
n/a
n/a
9/6/2024
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. Pictures
$79,000,000
$89,000,000
$84,000,000
$201,000,000
$258,800,000
$223,600,000
9/6/2024
El Candidato Honesto
Cinematica Media
n/a
n/a
9/6/2024
The Front Room
A24
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9/6/2024
I’ll Be Right There
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/12/2024
God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
9/12/2024
Usher: Rendezvous in Paris
AMC Theatres / Trafalgar Releasing
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Am I Racist?
SDG Releasing
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Believer
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
The Killer’s Game
Lionsgate
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
DAN DA DAN: First Encounter
GKIDS
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Meanwhile on Earth
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/13/2024
Speak No Evil
Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$16,500,000
$42,400,000
$65,000,000
$50,200,000
9/20/2024
Bagman
Lionsgate
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9/20/2024
A Different Man (Limited)
A24
n/a
n/a
9/20/2024
Lee (Limited)
Roadside Attractions
n/a
n/a
9/20/2024
Never Let Go
Lionsgate
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
$11,000,000
$27,000,000
$22,000,000
9/20/2024
The Substance
Brainstorm Media
n/a
n/a
9/20/2024
Transformers One
Paramount Pictures
$37,000,000
$45,000,000
$37,000,000
$93,000,000
$135,000,000
$120,000,000
9/20/2024
Wolfs (Limited)
Sony Pictures / Apple Original Films
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.