This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update takes a look at the next key tentpole slated for mid-Q4 as fall box office continues to look at its strongest since pre-pandemic times.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Venom: The Last Dance carries with it significant audience goodwill on the heels of its predecessors which delivered strong box office returns in 2018 and 2021, posting $80.3 million and $90 million domestic opening weekends, respectively.
- Pre-sales have yet to begin, so those will naturally influence late stage tracking in the weeks ahead.
- Early buzz and trailer reactions are largely positive thanks to the return of Tom Hardy in the lead role and another comedy-driven, crowd-pleasing action pic that promises to wrap up a trilogy of films.
- Although sentiment towards comic book films has become more selective from a general audience and fan standpoint, escapism and lighter fare have proven to still do well with a strong final product (ala Deadpool & Wolverine and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3) since Venom: Let There Be Carnage performed strongly amid early pandemic market recovery.
- With no major competition until mid-to-late November, the three-quel has runway for its box office legs despite what will be some inevitable front-loading on opening weekend.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/19/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 9/26/2024 | Howl’s Moving Castle (20th Anniversary) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | Azrael | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Bagman | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Lee (Wide) | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Megalopolis | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,500,000 (-32%) | $11,250,000 | $24,000,000 | $14,000,000 (-36%) |
| 9/27/2024 | My Old Ass (Wide Expansion) | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $4,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $6,500,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Saturday Night (LA + NY Platform) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | The Wild Robot | $27,000,000 | $35,000,000 | $32,500,000 (+8%) | $109,000,000 | $158,000,000 | $145,200,000 (+8%) |
| 10/3/2024 | House of Spoils | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Joker: Folie à Deux | $64,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $74,000,000 (-4%) | $147,700,000 | $216,800,000 | $161,500,000 (-4%) |
| 10/4/2024 | Monster Summer | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Saturday Night (Limited Expansion) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | The Apprentice | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Chosen Family | n/a | |||||
| 10/11/2024 | The Man in the White Van | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $6,700,000 | $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | The Nightmare Before Christmas (2024 Re-Issue) | $3,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Piece By Piece | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | Rumours | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Saturday Night | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $56,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Terrifier 3 | $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 (-11%) | $9,000,000 | $20,250,000 | $20,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | We Live In Time (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Goodrich | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/18/2024 | Hocus Pocus (2024 Re-Issue) | $1,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $3,600,000 | $9,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Smile 2 | $28,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $31,000,000 | $65,000,000 | $100,500,000 | $72,000,000 |
| 10/18/2024 | Stockholm Bloodbath | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/20/2024 | Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/23/2024 | Saw (20th Anniversary Re-Issue) (10/20 and 10/23 only) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/25/2024 | Conclave | $3,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| 10/25/2024 | Nickel Boys (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/25/2024 | Venom: The Last Dance | $87,000,000 | $107,000,000 | $95,000,000 | $201,000,000 | $251,000,000 | $212,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.