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This week’s update welcomes several new additions to our free tracking and forecast reports available in the chart below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Absent much change from last week’s update, Twisters remains a strong pre-seller in middle America markets that tend to be overlooked in traditional industry tracking. Once the Fourth of July holiday corridor has played out, confidence levels in its potential should start to take better form. For now, we remain fairly bullish.
- Similarly, Deadpool & Wolverine remains mostly on its previously established pace. It looks set to become the biggest R-rated opening of all time. Variables will soon begin to more prominently focus on how much of the casual Marvel audience purchases advance tickets and/or shows up in late stage tracking.
- Opening one month after Despicable Me 4 and other family-driven summer titles, Harold and the Purple Crayon (August 2) could be well-positioned as a late summer option for parents with young kids and no additional competition until September. Still, the marketing engine hasn’t fully ramped up so far.
- Borderlands (August 9) is facing a mixed bag of factors leading up to release, ranging from a long production history and release delays to at-times sharply critical social media comments from the video game’s fan base. With that said, an ensemble cast led by Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, and Jack Black could help offset some of the negativity with recent trailers generating respectable footprints and pitching a comedic action film that might translate better among casual audiences in late summer. Director Eli Roth also has a history of delivering sleeper genre performers with his own fan following to consider amid this film’s potential, but forecasts are quite volatile for now.
- Colleen Hoover’s It Ends with Us will counter-program with a romantic drama aimed at adult women and Blake Lively fans. We’ll monitor pre-sales when they begin as the source novel could lead to fair interest levels, but it remains to be seen if this will be a performer along the lines of Where the Crawdads Sing.
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/3/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; scroll on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 7/12/2024 | The Lion King (1994) (30th Anniversary Reissue) | Walt Disney Pictures | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/12/2024 | Touch | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/12/2024 | Fly Me to the Moon | Sony Pictures / Apple Original Films | $8,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $43,000,000 | $37,100,000 |
| 7/12/2024 | June Zero (Nationwide Expansion) | Cohen Media Group | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/19/2024 | Lumina | Goldove Entertainment | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/19/2024 | Oddity | IFC Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/19/2024 | Twisters | Universal Pictures / Amblin Entertainment | $71,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $78,500,000 | $242,000,000 | $325,000,000 | $278,000,000 |
| 7/26/2024 | Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $175,000,000 | $214,000,000 | $192,000,000 (-3%) | $385,600,000 | $514,000,000 | $428,600,000 (-3%) |
| 7/26/2024 | Didi (Wide) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/26/2024 | Fabulous Four | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | Harold and the Purple Crayon | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $13,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $67,000,000 | $51,200,000 |
| 8/2/2024 | My Old Ass (Limited) | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | Trap | Warner Bros. Pictures | $17,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $22,500,000 (+7%) | $42,000,000 | $69,000,000 | $63,700,000 |
| 8/9/2024 | Borderlands | Lionsgate | $16,500,000 | $26,500,000 | $21,000,000 | $34,000,000 | $69,000,000 | $53,600,000 |
| 8/9/2024 | Cuckoo | Neon | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/9/2024 | Flynt Strong | MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/9/2024 | Colleen Hoover’s It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $42,000,000 | $29,700,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.