The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Taylor Swift did what does she best with another savvy business move last week, announcing her latest partnership with AMC Theatres distribution and movie theaters nationwide to release The Official Release Party of a Showgirl in a one-weekend-only event starting October 3.
- Initial pre-sales were not on the level of 2023’s Eras Tour, but that’s not a one-to-one comp since this is a listening party featuring all-new music rather than a concert event that allowed Swift’s multiple generations of fans to collectively celebrate her vast catalog of hit songs all at once.
- Nevertheless, Showgirl is poised to add a welcome boost to October box office as its first week of pre-sales has it on target for nearly $40 million or more on opening weekend. It’s very likely to top the 2008 release of Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert ($31.1 million) as the second best concert or concert-adjacent domestic debut (trailing only Swift’s own $93.2 million Eras opening).
- Joining the public forecast this week is Predator: Badlands, which hopes to duplicate some of the success of last year’s Alien: Romulus by drawing a large portion of its franchise’s core male audience.
- IMAX and premium screens will be a strong draw here, but pre-sales won’t begin until next month.
- Our initial models position this franchise continuation in a similar performance range as recent male-driven, high-concept actioners such as 28 Years Later, Ballerina, and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Strong reviews and marketing imprints would go a long way toward justifying higher expectations near those of the aforementioned Romulus, though the Predator franchise has historically played a bit more niche.
- The film will face Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and The Running Man in its second weekend.
- In other updates:
- Avatar: The Way of Water‘s re-issue may yet stand to benefit from the buzz of its follow-up’s (Ash and Fire) latest trailer, but early pre-sales are trending well behind the pace of 2022’s Avatar re-issue.
- Black Phone 2‘s strong early reviews are boosting models slightly as it faces minimal direct competition and has the heart of Halloween season to expand its runway.
- With some expected goodwill spillover from the success of Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, plus a strong debut in Japan last week, expectations for Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc are climbing.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/25/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
10/3/2025 |
Anemone |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
$2,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$3,750,000 |
$3,400,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$5,100,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Bone Lake |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Casper (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Good Boy |
IFC Entertainment Group |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Perfect Blue Remastered |
GKIDS |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$13,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
10/3/2025 |
Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl |
AMC Theatres |
$38,000,000 |
$53,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
$53,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
10/10/2025 |
After the Hunt (Limited) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Anemone (Moderate Expansion) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Fairyland |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Kiss of the Spider Woman |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Roofman |
Paramount Pictures |
$3,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$8,750,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
10/10/2025 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$18,800,000 |
10/10/2025 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$42,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$117,500,000 |
10/17/2025 |
After the Hunt (Expansion) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$84,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
10/17/2025 |
Blue Moon (Limited) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
10/17/2025 |
Pets on a Train |
Viva Pictures |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Truth & Treason |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,300,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
10/22/2025 |
The Nightmare Before Christmas (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Blue Moon (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Bugonia (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Desert Road |
Independent Films |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Eli Roth Presents: Dream Eater |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Shelby Oaks |
Neon |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Untitled The Horror Section Release |
Iconic Events |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Regretting You |
Paramount Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
Disney |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
10/29/2025 |
Anniversary |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/29/2025 |
Stitch Head |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
||||||
10/29/2025 |
Twilight (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
10/30/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
10/31/2025 |
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$11,250,000 |
$7,500,000 |
10/31/2025 |
Bugonia (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
10/31/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/1/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/2/2025 |
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/5/2025 |
Rocky VI: Rocky vs. Drago |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/5/2025 |
Grand Prix of Europe |
Viva Pictures |
||||||
11/7/2025 |
Christy |
Black Bear |
||||||
11/7/2025 |
Karen Kingsbury’s The Christmas Ring |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
11/7/2025 |
Nuremberg |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
11/7/2025 |
Predator: Badlands |
Disney |
$25,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
||||
11/7/2025 |
Rebuilding |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
11/7/2025 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.