The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- November 21:
- Wicked: For Good was already positioned as one of the year’s biggest films, but this week’s start of pre-sales yielded even more confidence in long range models as it blew past the first film’s pre-sale start last year in exhibition samples. The sequel cracked the top 10 all-time first days for Fandango, as well as the company’s best-ever first day for a PG film (over Frozen II).
- Pre-sales, as always, require context. There is certainly more upfront demand behind For Good following the first Wicked‘s incredible box office run and award season presence, topping even the most optimistic expectations among both fans and industry watchers. It’s still too early to gauge how much of a box office boost this conclusion film could see, but unlike previous two-parters (such the It films and Twilight finales), it appears there might be room for significant growth, at least on opening weekend, more on par with the Harry Potter finale.
- Competition will also be much less fierce this time around as last year’s Wicked went head-to-head with the male-driven counter-programmer, Gladiator II. No other tentpole opens against For Good this time, and it will have a much wider command of premium screens and IMAX.
- If there are any “cons” to weigh alongside the “pros”, even fans will freely admit that the massively popular song “Defying Gravity” was a major selling point of the first film and that card has already been played.
- Countering this year will be SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE, a more modest male-centric actioner that will aim to replicate the $3.3 million debut of its 2023 predecessor. Disney and Searchlight’s Rental Family will also bow with sights more set on Thanksgiving week appeal in its chase frame.
- Other updates:
- October 17: Black Phone 2 continues to trend well in advance sales and is garnering enthusiastic reviews from early screenings. With two weeks of stretch before Halloween, it could find legs without much competition during the heart of spooky season.
- October 24: Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere also continues to shine in advance modeling with fans of the singer/songwriter and general adult audiences standing out among demographic tracking. The Chainsaw Man release is also pacing well in line with earlier forecasts for the next theatrical anime hit.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/9/25
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
10/17/2025 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$84,000,000 |
$72,800,000 |
10/17/2025 |
Blue Moon (Limited) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$25,500,000 |
10/17/2025 |
Pets on a Train |
Viva Pictures |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Truth & Treason |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$5,300,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Regretting You |
Paramount Pictures |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$29,300,000 |
$51,800,000 |
$49,000,000 |
10/24/2025 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
Disney |
$17,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
10/29/2025 |
Twilight (2025 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
10/31/2025 |
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$11,250,000 |
$8,300,000 |
10/31/2025 |
Bugonia (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
11/7/2025 |
Christy |
Black Bear |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
11/7/2025 |
Nuremberg |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
11/7/2025 |
Predator: Badlands |
Disney |
$25,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
11/7/2025 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,750,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
11/14/2025 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$12,000,000 |
|||||
11/14/2025 |
Keeper |
NEON |
$6,000,000 |
|||||
11/14/2025 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
$22,000,000 |
|||||
11/21/2025 |
Rental Family |
Disney |
$2,000,000 |
|||||
11/21/2025 |
SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
|||||
11/21/2025 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal Pictures |
$145,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.