The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s spotlight addition and current tracking ranges:
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- December 5:
- Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is the rare studio tentpole film to get a release immediately after Thanksgiving weekend in early December when the market typically takes a breather and holiday holdovers settle in for the long haul.
- This year, Universal and Blumhouse are betting on FNAF fans to turn out in strong numbers for the anticipated sequel to 2023’s first adaptation of the wildly popular video game.
- Gens Z and Alpha will be the drivers here with another PG-13 rating to draw young fans of the IP.
- Diminished returns can likely be expected, but anything can change in the coming weeks. The first film bowed to a then-record $80 million domestic debut among PG-13 horror films, while legs were exceptionally short as the pic posted a 1.72x lifetime multiplier as it finished with $137.3 million ($297 million worldwide).
- Early social and trailer view metrics aren’t as high as what the teaser and trailers generated for the 2023 release, but they remain more than formidable than most in the grand scheme of high-profile horror sequels which often decline or struggle to build upon preceding box office receipts.
- Part of the first movie’s short lifespan could be attributed to the day-and-date streaming launch in theaters and on Peacock, a strategy being nixed this time as the sequel gets a pure theatrical release. Word of mouth may have been a factor as well — some fans were hoping for more authentic game-inspired experiences and mythology dives, but the 86 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes speaks to a number of viewers who ultimately enjoyed the film and may return for this follow-up.
- With the return of key cast members, director Emma Tammi’s comments about expanded animatronics and attempts at more faithful references to the games, and perhaps just as importantly for fans, the producing involvement of creator Scott Cawthon, enthusiasm remains very healthy for this follow-up chapter.
- Premium screen competition will be at a high as many exhibitors should expect (rightfully so) Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good to remain in good standing with post-holiday crowds entering their second and third frames, respectively.
- Pre-sales are expected to begin in early November, so we’ll revisit modeling and forecasts as needed in the weeks ahead. As is, we currently expect one of the top three openings ever for Blumhouse and their second best in the PG-13 realm, trailing only FNAF1.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/23/25
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
10/31/2025 |
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$9,750,000 |
$8,300,000 |
1.51 |
10/31/2025 |
Bugonia (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
3.50 |
10/31/2025 |
Kpop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event (Re-Issue) |
Netflix |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
1.00 |
11/7/2025 |
Christy |
Black Bear |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
3.33 |
11/7/2025 |
Predator: Badlands |
Disney |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
2.25 |
11/7/2025 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,750,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
2.50 |
11/14/2025 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
3.33 |
11/14/2025 |
Keeper |
NEON |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
2.53 |
11/14/2025 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
$22,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
$125,000,000 |
$112,000,000 |
4.15 |
11/21/2025 |
Rental Family |
Disney |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
3.20 |
11/21/2025 |
SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
2.00 |
11/21/2025 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal Pictures |
$155,000,000 |
$190,000,000 |
$165,000,000 |
$449,000,000 |
$519,000,000 |
$481,000,000 |
2.92 |
11/26/2025 |
Eternity |
A24 |
$3,500,000 |
||||||
11/26/2025 |
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
Netflix |
$10,000,000 |
||||||
11/26/2025 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$115,000,000 |
||||||
11/28/2025 |
The Thing With Feathers |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
||||||
12/5/2025 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$50,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.